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Welcome to Trade Secrets. This month, we’re talking to top crypto analysts about where Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies are going in the year ahead.
The Bulls
Bag Check: Bitcoin, Solana, Hyperliquid
Bitcoin’s best case is $250,000 in 2025: Charles Edwards
Bitcoin reclaimed the $100,000 price level on May 8 for the first time in over three months, so where is it headed by the end of the year?
According to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, Bitcoin reaching $250,000 is the “best case” for 2025.
Edwards bases his forecast on a metric called the Bitcoin Energy Value, which is a model that prices Bitcoin based on the energy used to mine it. “It can be very accurately tracked by using the known hashrates and the hardware efficiency of Bitcoin mining rigs,” Edwards tells Magazine.
Edwards explains that the metric has tracked Bitcoin’s fair value since its inception, and its price “has always mean-reverted to it.”
Edwards notes that Energy Value is currently at $130,000, but in previous cycles, momentum “and mania” drove Bitcoin’s price up to six times EV in 2017 and three times EV in 2021.
“So, given the market is much bigger now and more efficient, I think the best case for 2025 would be 2x EV, or around $250,000,” he explains.
Edwards says that would also require no more surprise tariff scares from US President Donald Trump and for the Federal Reserve’s policies being “pro-risk assets and pro-liquidity into the back end of the year.”
“I think we are starting to see some Bitcoin treasury flywheel effects play out already, which could go exponential as companies seek to replicate the (Micro)Strategy playbook,” Edwards says.
Edwards isn’t the only one eyeing that $250,000 Bitcoin target for 2025.
In April, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted Bitcoin could hit $250,000 in 2025 if the US Federal Reserve pivots to quantitative easing. Meanwhile, in November 2024, Fundstrat Global Advisors’ researcher Tom Lee gave a 12-month deadline for $250,000 Bitcoin.
Solana “may surpass” $500 by the year-end: Cole Kennelly
Solana could triple in price by the end of 2025 if its adoption rate gains momentum again, says Volmex Labs founder and CEO Cole Kennelly.
“SOL price may surpass $500 by the end of 2025, exceeding $250+ billion in network market cap,” Kennelly tells Magazine.
Kennelly argues that Solana is the “premier world computer powering a variety of decentralized applications with a single global atomic state.” He predicts that growing stablecoin use such as USDT and USDC and an upswing in the broader DeFi sector, specifically derivatives products, will catalyze demand for SOL.
Kennelly’s price prediction matches the same 2025 target that VanEck projected for Solana back in December 2024.
Another big boost for Solana this year could come if the US regulators approve Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs). On April 30, Bloomberg Intelligence boosted its estimated odds of this happening to 90%.
However, as we saw with Ether, crypto ETF launches do not guarantee that the asset will skyrocket. While Bitcoin surged 73% in the following two months after spot Bitcoin ETFs launched to reach new all-time highs, Ether dropped 36% in the two months after its July 2024 launch.
HYPE giving exchanges a “run for their money”: Ben Simpson
Collective Shift CEO Ben Simpson tells Magazine he’s keeping an eye on the native token of decentralized exchange Hyperliquid (HYPE) for the rest of the year, saying the outlook is bullish, but he’s not ready to slap a price target on it just yet.
“No price targets, but it’s doing really well as a revenue-generating layer 1,” Simpson tells Magazine. Launched in December 2024, Hyperliquid’s layer-1 blockchain, HyperEVM, managed to surpass Solana in seven-day fees by the week of February 27.
Simpson says the layer 1 is keeping major crypto exchanges on their toes.
“It’s built for derivatives, so it’s competing against major exchanges and giving them a run for their money by generating revenue on the platform and giving a share back to tokenholders. One I’m bullish on for this cycle,” Simpson says.
The Bears
Bag check: Bitcoin Classic, Ethereum Classic, Bitcoin Cash, World
Michaël van de Poppe is bearish on all “the Classic coins”
The OG spin-off tokens, Bitcoin Classic and Ethereum Classic will likely underperform this year price-wise, according to MN Trading Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe.
“The assets within the top 50 that I’m the most bearish on are the Classic coins,” van de Poppe tells Magazine.
“Coins that come from 2017 and are still printing significant lower lows against Bitcoin will likely continue to die down,” van de Poppe says. “Coins such as Bitcoin Classic and Ethereum Classic that serve no role and have proven to be wrong in their thesis.”
Both Bitcoin Classic and Ethereum Cash launched in 2017, and van de Poppe says they may still see some gains due to the rising tide lifting all boats.
He says if Bitcoin does another “3x,” then it is “very likely” that these classic coins may even make a “similar move,” but to him, that’s still bearish since you could’ve made way better gains putting your money elsewhere in a bull run.
“If we compare that thesis toward the upside that newer technologies are getting, it’s a big loser compared to those; therefore, I wouldn’t add those to my portfolio,” van de Poppe says.
Bitcoin Cash has “no hope” and may retrace 42% before years-end: Pav Hundal
Bitcoin Cash isn’t doing much of anything, and it could drop another 42% before the year’s out, says Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Aussie crypto exchange Swyftx.
“Bitcoin Cash is in structural decline. It was a terrible challenger project for Bitcoin from the start, and now all BCH metrics are ringing alarm bells,” Hundal tells Magazine.
Hundal sees Bitcoin Cash dropping as low as $214 before the end of 2025. “It’s not just about price. It’s the absence of traction across metrics that matter,” he says.
“BCH has no roadmap, no onchain buzz, no clear application layer and, therefore, no real hope,” Hundal says.
Hundal points out that the Bitcoin Cash user base is down 11.3% for the last 12-month period, and he sees no possible way for the asset to regain upside:
“It all feels a little bit like the slow heat death of the universe for BCH right now. I see no clear catalyst on the horizon to reverse its fortunes.”
Worldcoin may fall “25%-50%” by the end of the year: Hyblock Capital CEO
Worldcoin is just a “VC coin” without any real-world utility, says Hyblock Capital CEO Shubh Varma.
Varma places Wordcoin in the same basket of coins as Celestia (TIA), Sei (SEI) and Algorand (ALGO), on which he is “most bearish.” He expects Worldcoin and this group of crypto tokens to decline by “25%-50%” by the end of 2025.
“While a rising crypto market may lift all assets due to their high beta, these coins are likely to lag behind stronger performers. Specific downside targets vary, but a significant correction is anticipated if market sentiment shifts away from speculative assets,” Varma says.
“The bearish outlook is driven by the belief that the 2025 market cycle will prioritize fundamentals over narrative-driven hype,” he says.
What the data says…
Bitcoin and ETH futures markets signal “muted outlook” for May
Onchain options protocol Derive founder Nick Forster tells Magazine that futures traders are pricing in 40% chance for Bitcoin topping $105,000 by May 30, up from 16% last week. There’s also a 20% chance of Bitcoin reaching over $110,000 by May 30.
For ETH, there’s a 17% chance it will surpass $2,800 by the end of May (up from 1% last week) and 9% chance it will have risen above $3,000 by May 30, up 0.5%.
He noted the week had seen “major price movements across the crypto markets, with the majors seeing impressive gains.”
“Volatility has been rising, with BTC increasing from 36% last week to 40% today, peaking at 46%. ETH volatility has been even more dramatic, soaring from 52% last week to a high of 87%, before settling at 77% today.”
Crypto market sentiment
Crypto market sentiment faces a unique time: Santiment
Data from the crypto analytics platform Santiment shows that the past few months have been anything but ordinary for sentiment in the crypto market, but the outlook is finally starting to improve.
“This is definitely a unique time due to things dramatically being shaken up by Trump’s tariffs over the past five weeks,” Santiment head of content Brian Q tells Magazine.
Q explains that Santiment’s sentiment metrics are giving mixed signals on the market. One of those is retail traders on social media increasingly “calling for altcoins and mentioning altseason.”
“This is typically not the best sign, as it reflects a slightly greedy, non-fearful retail trader, on average,” Q says.
Q says there has been a significant uptick in crypto social media accounts making ridiculous Bitcoin price predictions. Ironically, whenever outrageous Bitcoin predictions spike on social media, the actual spot price usually doesn’t.
“We also are seeing a high level of high Bitcoin price predictions, as opposed to the low price predictions that were very prevalent when Bitcoin was buying out (and there was a perfect buy opportunity) from April 7 to 9 during maximum tariff fears,” Q says.
“The high prices have calmed down a little, but we typically want to see a much higher level of low price mentions as a sign crypto markets will continue to climb higher with little resistance.”
However, Q says the spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are looking bullish for Bitcoin. He says the recent $3 billion in net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs has been a “large contributor” to the “rapid rebound” after the early April Bitcoin crash, which saw Bitcoin’s price plunge to $76,273 on April 9, a 7.6% decline compared to its price at the start of the month.
“ETF inflows and outflows are a great, transparent way to monitor how institutions are perceiving crypto markets,” Santiment says.
Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, flipped back into “greed” territory on May 7 after Bitcoin continued to hold strength around the $95,000 price level.
What the prediction markets forecast
As we approach the middle of the year, confidence among punters on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket is high for Bitcoin surpassing its current all-time high of $109,000 by 2026, with odds sitting at 86%.
Sentiment around other major cryptocurrencies is more divided. By 2026, the punters think Ethereum has just a 26% chance of breaking its all-time high of $4,878, which it reached in November 2021.
Solana has a 43% chance of breaking its all-time high of $293, which it reached on Jan. 19 driven by the launch of the TRUMP memecoin on the chain and a broader Solana-based memecoin rally.
XRP, is yet to surpass its 2018 high of $3.40, but has a 49% chance of doing so this year according to speculatoors. And despite US President Donald Trump signing an executive order for a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in March, the likelihood of a US National Ethereum Reserve is seen to be just 32%. (Keeping confiscated Ethereum in a stockpile doesn’t count, Polymarket is solely focused on new buys.)
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