Bit Digital CEO Sam Tabar says the commercial Bitcoin mining industry is “doomed” — even though Bitcoin mining itself will live on.
The “Bitcoin mining industry is going to be dead in two years” he tells Magazine, explaining the economics of profit and loss will no longer stack up from a business perspective.
“There’s no way the mining industry can survive another halving and then, at the same time, the sovereigns get into, start participating in Bitcoin mining.”
Bit Digital started life as a peer-to-peer car rental service in China in 2015, but pivoted to Bitcoin mining after a 2018 clampdown on P2P lending in China. In June, it announced it would completely wind down its Bitcoin mining infrastructure across the US, Canada and Iceland and redirect the funds toward its Ethereum treasury strategy.
“A few years went by and we realized — and I think the other miners are finally realizing this, that that is a very shitty business,” he says.
Tabar says the block reward halving last year “was a disaster” and predicts the next halving in two and a half years’ time (April 2028) will be the death knell for many of the remaining miners, as it will halve their revenue once again. As the Bitcoin price nears $250,000, Tabar believes sovereign nations will move in to “mine Bitcoin…at scale to put on their balance sheets.
“It doesn’t cost them anything to mine Bitcoin because they have free access to power, unlike Bitcoin miners.”
About half of the countries worldwide have government-owned electricity generation assets, and the numbers are even higher among the top electricity producing nations, including China, India, Russia and Brazil.
The governments of two small nations are leading the way in mining Bitcoin.
Bhutan has leveraged its abundant hydroelectric resources to mine $1.4 billion worth of Bitcoin to date, while Ethiopia now accounts for about 5% of the global Bitcoin hashrate, thanks mainly to the government-owned Ethiopia Electric Power.
By using surplus hydroelectricity, Al Jazeera reports, its production cost is just $20,000 per Bitcoin, and the outfit has made $220 million from mining in the past year.Estimates for the commercial industry’s cost of production vary, but MacroMicro put the current average cost of mining 1 Bitcoin above $100,000.
NEW: Al Jazeera reports the all in cost of of mining one Bitcoin in 🇪🇹 Ethiopia is only $20,000 due to abundant hydropower 😮
— Bitcoin News (@BitcoinNewsCom) September 12, 2025
Tabar says as more countries pile into mining, it will push the hashrate “through the fucking roof,” making it unlikely that “any Bitcoin mining company, private or public, can survive another halving — and the hashrate exploding — when sovereigns participate.”
Interestingly, this scenario renders the furious debate over Bitcoin’s long-term security budget issue pretty much moot. Tabar says, “I don’t think it’s going to be a problem” due to nation-states taking over.
Tabar argues he correctly predicted China’s clampdown on Bitcoin mining ahead of time —and successfully got his fleet out of the country — along with the rise of crypto treasury companies, and tips he’ll be right this time too.
Different takes on the future of Bitcoin mining
Not everyone agrees with this take of course. Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan set up Quantum Expeditions in 2023 to mine Bitcoin with an off-grid and low-cost energy source. He says there’s plenty of free power available if you know where to look.
“Nation-states don’t have access to free power. The energy they produce costs money, infrastructure spend and man-hours,” he argues, adding:
“Quantum Expeditions has free power. O&G (oil and gas) companies burn hundreds of billions of cubic feet of natural gas in Texas every year, they are more than happy to give it to us, and will even fund our sites.”
Bitcoin mining analyst General Kenobi agrees that the Bitcoin mining industry is headed for a shake-up, with electricity companies dominating as a way to make profits and to stabilize the grid.
“Something that I believe is going to happen in the future is, every modern electricity grid operator will have their own Bitcoin mining division operation,” he says, explaining that mining rigs can be switched on to make money from surplus energy and switched off at times of peak demand.
“Every grid operator will have Bitcoin miners because it’s the most effective and efficient way to balance the grid. It’s easier than forcing people to disconnect,” he says. Kenobi believes it may even have been able to prevent the collapse of Spain’s electricity grid in April.
Even Michael Saylor thinks Bitcoin mining is a terrible business
One high-profile Bitcoiner who reportedly agrees that Bitcoin mining is tough is Strategy boss Michael Saylor, whom Tabar talked to at the HC Wainwright conference in September last year.
According to Tabar, Saylor sympathized with his complaints about mining and agreed “the Bitcoin mining business is terrible.”
“Why don’t you stop your Bitcoin mining business and just do what we’re doing?” Saylor suggested. “Just become a mini-MSTR. Just buy Bitcoin, put it on the balance sheet and just wash, rinse and repeat.”
“And I said, but I want to do that with Ethereum.”
The mood got pretty frosty at that point, but Tabar had decided the Bitcoin treasury field was already too crowded and that amassing Ethereum made better economic sense than mining.
“There’s no halving in Ethereum. You don’t have to buy these bloody stupid machines all the time. You don’t have to find sources of power that’s cheap. It’s way easier, a much much better business.”
Bit Digital has since become the fourth largest Ether treasury and amassed 120,300 Ether worth half a billion dollars.
Part 2, ‘7 reasons why Bitcoin mining is a terrible business idea’ will be published tomorrow.
Andrew Fenton
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