TradFi fans ignored Lyn Alden’s BTC tip — Now she says it’ll hit 7 figures: X Hall of Flame

Lyn Alden says most financial advisors are “followers, not leaders”… but that means they’ll pile into Bitcoin as soon as BlackRock and Fidelity’s ETFs give the asset the green light. Find out more about the TradFi influencer who jumped on board the Bitcoin train, predicted the implosion of Terra-Luna and explained why FTX’s “clown bucks” were such a dangerous idea.

Lyn Alden tells Magazine she had a suspicion that LUNA was lunacy but didn’t expect it to explode so quickly after warning her followers about it.

“Luna was out in the open. It had clear characteristics of a Ponzi scheme, and it was at risk. So I wrote about that, and it got a little bit of attention,” Alden declares.

Alden’s 652,500 followers probably felt like she had some sort of crystal ball, given how fast things went downhill after her heads-up.

“I didn’t expect it to blow up in a month or two, but things tend to be nonlinear,” she says.

If Luna has a similar price decline to Fantom or some of these other hard-hit cryptos, the UST peg would be at risk.

If the UST peg becomes at risk, the LFG would be selling bitcoin reserves into an already soft market. That type of event could mark a cycle capitulation. pic.twitter.com/lUhr0AC7g8
— Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact) May 1, 2022

Alden is the mastermind behind Lyn Alden Investment Strategy – a website dishing out investment research for everyone from everyday Joes to big shots. She comes across as very confident, but when it came to dipping her toes into Bitcoin, she had some reservations at first:

“I thought the topic was neat and I was like maybe I should use my computer to mine a little bit. But I was always like, ‘I’ll figure it out next week’ and I never got around to it.”

That was in 2010, when Bitcoin hit had hit a then-high of $0.39. Mining a few might have been a pretty good idea, hey?

She kept following the subject, watching Bitcoin have a big price pump in 2014 and another one in 2017 when she penned her first article on Bitcoin.

She still held back from buying any, explaining her belief at the time it was ”pretty promising technology, but it was in a period of euphoria.”

Alden spotted her chance to grab some Bitcoin right at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic when it followed traditional assets in repricing for a Global Depression:

“When it crashed into March 2020 with everything else, it displayed a lot of characteristics of gold and silver when there’s a liquidity problem. So I bought Bitcoin in April 2020 at $6,900 a coin and recommended it to my research subscribers.”

She’s been all in with the community ever since and pitches in to explain WTF is happening when major catastrophes hit the industry.

She had a super popular tweet in November 2022, making a funny comparison between McDonald’s and Starbucks to explain what went wrong with FTX.

And then Starbucks comes and market sells the clown-bucks they were holding, while reminding the market that clown-bucks aren't really a thing.

McDonald's balance sheet is trashed, with their clown-bucks wiped out.

Anyway, that's what happened in crypto-land this week. pic.twitter.com/nMKMgUuV1C
— Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact) November 8, 2022

What led to Twitter fame?

Alden’s Twitter following began picking up steam when she was TradFi focused.

Back in 2019, the repo rate in the U.S. shot up — that’s the overnight lending rate, in case you’re wondering.

Alden hopped online to break down what went down on Financial Twitter, also known as FinTwit. It’s like Crypto Twitter, just maybe a bit less crazy.

“There was a lot of analysis at the time of what was going on, and I wrote a detailed thread explaining what contributed to that repo spike and made the argument that it was not a bank failure, it was an oversupply problem.”

Issue 1) Widening $1T fiscal deficits are causing large supply of UST at unprecedented % of GDP outside of recession/war. pic.twitter.com/KBQYQ5NnQf
— Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact) September 21, 2019

“It was backed up by a lot of evidence, and that gave me more credibility and followers on Twitter. The momentum never really stopped from there. It started snowballing,” she says.

Naturally, diving into the Bitcoin scene with her economically savvy brain has attracted two unique groups of followers.

“I kind of operate in two different worlds that partially overlap. The macro world where many of them still don’t particularly appreciate Bitcoin and then the Bitcoin world where some of them do care about macro.”

What type of content can people expect?

If you’re into Bitcoin and macroeconomic insights, Alden will be right up your alley.

But not all of her OG fan base was cool with her new interest:

“I did get some pushback,” she explains.”Some people were like, ‘I love her macro content, but she likes Bitcoin too much.’”

More fool them, because they turned their backs on a golden opportunity:

“If you like my macro but ignored my Bitcoin recommendation that was my best-performing recommendation pretty much, or one of the best, up there with uranium and MicroStrategy, which is basically another Bitcoin derivative.”

“OK, so, like, other than my best call. You like my work. It’s kind of funny,” she laughs.

I analyze and highlight a lot of investments. Why do people only call the bitcoin recommendation (since April 2020 at $6,900 per coin) "pumping"?

Was it "pumping" when I repeatedly highlighted oil stocks and pipeline stocks?

Sounds biased to me.
— Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact) October 9, 2022

What type of content do you like?

Alden digs MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor, but she’s secretly hoping he will chill a bit on Twitter/X and let us see the unfiltered him.

“I think Saylor does really well in podcasts,” she says. “He’s really good at conferences. However, on Twitter, I think he holds back a little bit and focuses on other things but I do follow them, and I like the MicroStrategy update to see what they’re buying.”

Alden also likes to keep tabs on the people at the heart of the industry decisions:

“I try to get a big mix. I focus on what company founders are saying. I follow some VCS. They write about things in the space. I purposely seek out broad mixed perspectives,” she states.

My November newsletter is out now, and discusses how emerging monetary technologies have the potential to disrupt the existing global financial system over the long term.https://t.co/GeNRZoR8gU pic.twitter.com/urDQO7Gsf1
— Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact) November 20, 2023

She also loves memes and suggests that they are kind of like romantic relationships.

“I think the main advice is just don’t force a meme. If you force it, it’s not going to be funny,” she declares.

“If you’re following the nuances of various conversations and debates and things like that, funny memes can just kind of come to you quicker.”

Predictions?

Alden says a spot Bitcoin ETF approval could unleash a flood of cash sitting on the sidelines that hasn’t been used on other Bitcoin products:

“I think it’s a demand driver because it unlocks certain types of capital that don’t want to invest in a futures ETF, that don’t want to invest in a trust. It’s in an existing brokerage account.”

She suggests most asset managers are lazy and will just run with whatever BlackRock and Fidelity like.

“It gives the green light for advisors to start considering it a serious asset because most of them are followers, not leaders.”

Regarding price predictions, Alden initially offered a conservative forecast.

“I am very bullish with a two-year view. So, by the end of 2025, I would expect it to be notably higher than it is now, and I’d be pretty surprised if it was not. That’s kind of my more high conviction time frame.”

Seriously though, it’s the Hall of Flame – we’re not here for wishy-washy, safe predictions. We want your true belief on the price.

Alden finally caves…

“I refer to the statement that basically if Bitcoin’s hashrate remains secure and decentralized and it gets through the various challenges with it, I would expect seven figures in the 2030s,” she states.

Also, great news for the shit-coin enthusiasts – Alden’s feeling positive that it’s not just Bitcoin’s price that’s gonna shoot up.

“I assume some of the hotter altcoin assets will probably tag along with Bitcoin. I don’t think this can be a cycle where it’s Bitcoin pumps alone.”

I'm not relying on charts, nor is it my prediction.

My base case would be $100k-$200k next cycle, which is less than 3.5x and thus diminishing returns.

But over $241k is not remote, imo. For fundamental (non-chart) reasons.
— Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact) June 18, 2023