Bitcoin (BTC) has a matter of days to go before beginning a new macro uptrend, the latest analysis says.
In his latest tweet, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital flagged a key monthly close in the making for BTC/USD.
BTC price action closely mimics past cycles
Despite facing problems flipping $28,000 to support, BTC price action is firmly on the way to abandoning its bear market.
That is according to Rekt Capital, who on March 26 presented an optimistic picture of how BTC/USD would likely finish the month.
The pair’s recent gains have put it above a macro downtrend in place since its 2021 all-time highs, but the March close would be the first potential candle to complete above that trend line on monthly timeframes.
“Next Saturday, the BTC Monthly Candle will have closed above the Macro Downtrend to confirm a new Bull Market,” Rekt Capital commented.
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An accompanying chart compared 2023 price behavior to that of previous cycles and implied that Bitcoin is now breaking out toward new all-time highs after setting a bear market low.
Should that be the case, the cycle low would have occurred in November 2022, just after the FTX debacle, when BTC/USD hit $15,600.
A further post reiterated that the current monthly candle fits Bitcoin’s historical patterns when it comes to breakouts from macro downtrends.
Notice how #BTC Macro Downtrend Breakout Candles have historically had upside wicks form (yellow circles)— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) March 25, 2023
This current Monthly breakout candle looks no different$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/HSzaaXHGfe
No flipping $28,000 as weekly close approaches
Bitcoin spot price action meanwhile continues to keep market participants guessing as the weekend comes to an end.
Related: Bitcoin bulls remain bullish, but macro and crypto-specific hurdles have BTC pinned below $30K
Mostly flat trading behavior has seen little by way of change, with a push over $28,000 the first notable event in several days. At the time of writing, however, BTC/USD was back below that level, as shown by data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Popular analytics account Skew argued that exchange behavior was characteristic of weekends, with overall lower liquidity apt to move spot price more easily.
$BTC Spot CVD Buckets & Delta Orders— Skew Δ (@52kskew) March 26, 2023
MMs selling pretty heavily here into some large buyer, typically price compresses till either side is out of capital to move price or gives up.
Sunday shenanigans, GN CT ❤️ pic.twitter.com/4MFz6qSAYf
Analyzing potential scenarios, trader Crypto Chase highlighted $28,600 as the breaker level, while to the upside, $33,000 was tipped as the point at which a “major reversal” would take place.
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