The majority of the Ripple (XRP) holders were waiting for the yearly Swell conference to bring some excitement to XRP price. However, the price didn’t move at all and now Ripple is searching for annual lows on its USD pair.
Crypto market daily performance. Source: Coin360
The question is, was it reasonable for investors to expect a vast rally before the Swell conference or should they have not expected any upward movement at all? Let’s look at the charts to see what XRP price might do in the future.
Ripple remains in a year-long downtrend
There are some exciting things to be seen from the USD chart. The trend is quite clear and readers will notice that XRP price has continued to fall since the peak in January 2018.
XRP USD 2-day chart. Source: TradingView
A downtrend is marked by lower highs and lower lows. Quite importantly, the price didn’t make any higher high since the peak in January 2018 and is still stuck in its downtrend.
A positive is that there is a remarkably healthy support level of around $0.30. It took nearly a year until the floor broke downwards and this breakdown occurred in August 2019.
Since then, the XRP did make a few retests of this level and confirmed this level as resistance, which marked the continuation of the downward movements towards the next support area around $0.19 to $0.20.
Swell didn’t go so well
Another interesting phenomenon is the excitement of XRP investors around the time that the Swell conference is meant to begin.
XRP USD 2-day chart. Source: TradingView
Quite remarkably, the 2-day chart provides clear data regarding the impact of the past three Swell conferences on XRP price. Each time there is a surge before the actual event occurs and the price drops the moment the event starts or finishes. Is this due to unsatisfied investors selling their tokens or are they simply playing the surge provided by the event?
What can be concluded from this chart is that it’s a classic example of the buy the rumor, sell the news concept. In this concept, there’s a surge before actual events (buy the rumor), caused by hype. However, when the actual event occurs, the price drops as the hype is going away (sell the news).
This phenomenon is seen on many levels and can also be found on the last Bitcoin (BTC) halving or the previous Litecoin (LTC) halvings.
LTC USD 2-day chart. Source: TradingView
As shown by the LTC 2-day chart, and also with the halving in 2015, we can see a price run-up before the actual halving took place. This is simply another example of the ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ concept, one of the unique phenomena which occurs in trading and investing.
Ripple has nearly bottomed on the BTC pair
XRP BTC 2-day chart. Source: TradingView
The XRP/BTC 2-day chart shows XRP price hovering on a vital support area (the green box). This area provided support and resistance levels for more than four years and is a level to watch closely.
Furthermore, the price broke out of a massive falling wedge construction and marked bullish divergences alongside it, which is often seen as a sign of a trend reversal.
XRP BTC daily chart. Source: TradingView
Currently, the daily chart is providing data that XRP price is in a crucial support area. This area is a previous order block and horizontal support zone that should be kept as support if the XRP wants to maintain bullish perspectives.
Alongside that, a potential falling wedge construction is found which is similar to the one seen on the left side of the chart. If the price can maintain this support and break to the upside, then a breakout towards 3700-3750 satoshis and possibly 4800-5000 satoshis is likely.
The case of XRP price seeing a continuation to the upside is growing more likely according to the higher timeframes.
XRP USD 4-day chart. Source: TradingView
The higher time frame charts (4-day in this example) are showing similar signals to prior bottom formations. The last time a bullish divergence occurred on the 4-day chart, the price surged 5,500% and 180%.
A bullish divergence is not a guarantee of any price movements, but they are seen as one of the significant indicators for a potential trend reversal.
Ripple needs to break $0.30 to flip bullish
XRP USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
The crucial factor for Ripple is the need to break out of the falling wedge construction. Any bullish reversal will hinge on this happening. Furthermore, if the breakout occurs, XRP price needs to push above $0.30.
The reasoning behind that is quite simple; the $0.30 level used to be a support for a year. Through breaking that level, a potential higher high can be defined, and a new upwards trend can start.
At the time of publishing, XRP price is still making lower highs and lower lows, so an upwards breakout is needed to speak of bullishness.
Holding XRP through the past two years didn’t bring a high return on investment as the price is down 93.45% since its all-time high. Does this mean that buying XRP would be a bad investment at this point?
Not necessarily and many investors will remember a quote made famous by an 18th British nobleman named Baron Rothschild. Rothschild said, “Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.”
In that regard, if the price starts to make an uptrend, a crucial factor is a breakout of $0.30 to start an uptrend and to provide a better investment opportunity. If $0.20 to $0.21 can’t provide support, the next support level is at $0.15.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.