Data shows that Bitcoin’s (BTC) current rally is supported by greater participation from retail and institutional investors. The CME Bitcoin futures open interest has moved closer to the previous all-time high, a sign that institutional investors are becoming more interested in cryptocurrencies. Similarly, Bitcoin’s spot volume has hit a new 52-week high, according to data from Arcane research.
However, during strong uptrends, traders tend to get greedy and take on excessive leverage. Hence, large open interest on derivatives could act as a double-edged sword because even a small decline in Bitcoin could force the highly leveraged traders to close their positions. Such a move could have a cascading effect that could lead to long liquidation.
While traders should be cautious, there is no need to panic as yet because the current up-move in Bitcoin has happened without any euphoria or frenzy, especially among retail traders.
Moreover, several analysts have been skeptical of the rally, which is another positive sign. The top usually forms when the last bear in the market turns bullish and there is no one left to buy.
This does not mean that there will be no corrections along the way. Pullbacks are necessary to periodically shake out the weak hands and this generally improves the longevity of the trend.
Let’s analyze the top-10 cryptocurrencies to ascertain whether the uptrend will continue or is a correction around the corner.
The bulls pushed Bitcoin (BTC) above the $16,000 overhead resistance on Nov. 12. This breakout started the next leg of the uptrend that may carry the price to the critical overhead resistance at $17,200.
The upsloping moving averages and the relative strength index in the overbought territory suggest that the bulls are in command. If the momentum can carry the price above $17,200, then the bulls will have a clear shot at the all-time highs.
However, traders can get cautious if the pair turns down from the current levels and drops below $16,000 once again. This will suggest that the market participants have rejected higher levels.
If the price sustains below $16,000, the bears will try to sink the BTC/USD pair below the 20-day exponential moving average ($14,596). Such a move will indicate that bulls are not buying the dips as the sentiment has turned negative.
The bulls are finding it difficult to propel Ether (ETH) above the resistance line of the rising wedge pattern. However, the positive thing is that the bulls have not given up much ground.
The bulls will again attempt to thrust the price above the wedge. If they can do that, the ETH/USD pair may rise to $488.134. The bears may again try to stall the up-move at this resistance. If they succeed, a drop to the 20-day EMA ($426) is possible.
Conversely, if the bulls can push the price above $488.134, the next leg of the uptrend is likely to begin. The first target on the upside is $520 and then $550. The upsloping moving averages and the RSI above 67 suggest that bears are in command.
The first sign of weakness will be a break below the 20-day EMA. Such a move could result in a drop to the support line of the wedge.
XRP has been consolidating near the $0.26 overhead resistance for the past two days. This suggests that the bulls are not closing their positions in a hurry as they expect the price to break above the range.
The rising moving averages and the RSI above 59 suggest that bulls are in control. A breakout and close above $0.26 could start the journey to $0.30. Above this level, the up-move may reach $0.326113.
Contrary to this assumption, if the bulls again fail to sustain the price above $0.26, then the bears will try to pull the price back below the moving averages. If they succeed, the XRP/USD pair may drop to $0.2295.
The bulls failed to push and sustain Chainlink (LINK) above $13.28 on Nov. 11. This shows that the bears are aggressively defending this resistance. However, the positive thing is that the bulls have not given up much ground in the past two days.
The bulls are currently attempting to drive the price above $13.28. If they manage to do that, the LINK/USD pair will complete an inverse head and shoulders pattern that has a target objective of $19.2731.
Both moving averages are sloping up and the RSI has risen above 58. This suggests a minor advantage to the bulls.
Contrary to this assumption, if the pair turns down from $13.28 once again, the bears will try to pull the price down to $9.7665. A break below this support will invalidate the bullish pattern.
The bulls purchased the dip below the 20-day EMA ($257) on Nov. 12 but could not sustain the higher levels. This has attracted selling by the bears and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has broken below the 20-day EMA.
If the bears sink the price below the 50-day simple moving average ($247), the BCH/USD pair could drop to the next support at $231. The bulls have defended this support on two previous occasions, hence, a break below it may intensify selling and drag the price to $200.
However, the 20-day EMA is flat and the RSI is close to the midpoint, which suggests a few more days of range-bound action. The momentum could pick up if the bulls push the price above $280 or the bears sink the price below $231.
Litecoin (LTC) has surged above the $64 resistance today, which shows that the bulls have overpowered the bears. The buyers will now try to sustain the momentum and drive the price above $68.9008.
If they succeed, the next leg of the uptrend could begin. The next target is $80 and then a rally to $100 is possible. The upsloping moving averages and the RSI above 67 suggest bulls are in charge.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price again turns down from the current levels and plummets below $64, it will suggest a lack of buyers at higher levels. Such a move could attract profit booking that may result in a drop to the 20-day EMA ($57.86).
Binance Coin (BNB) is currently stuck in a tight range between $28.97 and $27.30. The altcoin bounced off the support of this range on Nov. 12 and the bulls will now try to push the price above the moving averages.
If they succeed, the BNB/USD pair could rise to $30 and a break above this resistance may open the gates for a rally to $32.
However, the downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI just below the midpoint suggest a minor advantage to the bears.
If the price turns down from the current levels and breaks below $27.30, the pair may drop to $25.6652. A break below this support will signal weakness.
Polkadot (DOT) turned down from $4.63 on Nov. 11 and the bears attempted to sink the price below the 20-day EMA ($4.31) on Nov. 12 but failed. This shows that bulls are defending the moving averages.
The 20-day EMA is rising gradually and the RSI is above 55, which suggests that bulls have the upper hand. However, the buyers will have to sustain the price above the immediate resistance at $4.50 to increase the possibility of a move to $4.95.
Contrary to this assumption, if the DOT/USD pair again turns down from $4.50 or $4.63, the bears will try to sink the price below the moving averages. If they succeed, the pair could drop to the $3.80 support.
After the bulls failed to push Cardano (ADA) higher on Nov. 10 and 11, the bears tried to sink the price below the moving averages on Nov. 12 but could not. The altcoin has currently rebounded off the 20-day EMA ($0.102) and the bulls are attempting to push the price to $0.1142241.
The moving averages are rising and the RSI is in the positive zone, suggesting an advantage to the bulls. The ADA/USD pair could pick up momentum after the bulls push the price above $0.1142241.
However, if the pair turns down from the current levels and plunges below the moving averages, the bears will try to pull the price down to the $0.0893 support.
The next trending move may start after the bulls push the price above $0.1142241 or the bears sink the price below $0.0893.
The bulls have failed to propel Bitcoin SV (BSV) above the 20-day EMA ($162) in the past three days. This suggests a lack of urgency among the bulls to buy at the current levels.
The 20-day EMA has started to turn down and the RSI is just below the midpoint, which suggests a minor advantage to the bears.
If the sellers can sink the price below the immediate support at $154.66, the BSV/USD pair could drop to the $146 support.
This negative view will be invalidated if the bulls can push the price above the moving averages and the downtrend line. Such a move will increase the possibility of a rally to $181.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.