After rising for four successive months, Bitcoin is on track to end May with losses of about 7%. Another noteworthy thing in May is that Bitcoin’s (BTC) 30-day volatility dropped to 1.52%, which is far below the yearly average of 4% and higher. Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin’s low volatility periods have only lasted for 19.3% of its total price history. Hence, there is an expectation for volatility to pick up in June.
In an exclusive interview with Cointelegraph, Glassnode lead on-chain analyst James Check said that Bitcoin could rally to $32,000, which is its “true cost basis.” Analysts at Glassnode arrived at this level after focusing on active Bitcoin investors and removing coins that are lost forever.
In the near term, the outcome of the vote on the debt ceiling in the United States House of Representatives could provide direction. If the vote succeeds, as is widely expected, it could lead to a knee-jerk reaction to the upside. But if the vote fails, then Bitcoin is likely to break below $25,000.
The short-term charts of Bitcoin and select major altcoins suggest that the bulls may be losing their grip. What are the important support levels that the bulls need to hold to avoid a collapse? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin reversed direction from the downtrend line on May 29, indicating that the bears continue to sell near crucial resistance levels.
The flattish 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $27,273 and the relative strength index (RSI) just below the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears. If the price sustains below the 20-day EMA, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to the $25,250 support.
Buyers are expected to defend the zone between $24,000 and $25,250 with all their might because if it cracks, the pair may nosedive to $20,000.
On the upside, the bulls will have to surmount the downtrend line to signal the start of a new up move. The pair may first rise to $30,000 and later to $31,000.
Ether price analysis
The bulls are struggling to maintain Ether (ETH) above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $1,883. This suggests a lack of demand at higher levels.
The bears are trying to sink the price back into the falling wedge pattern and trap the aggressive bulls. If that happens, the ETH/USDT pair may fall to $1,762 and then to the support line of the wedge.
Conversely, if the price rebounds off the resistance line of the wedge, it will suggest that the bears have flipped the level into support. The pair may then rise to the psychological resistance at $2,000 and subsequently to $2,142.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) climbed and closed above the 20-day EMA ($311) on May 28, but the bulls could not continue the momentum and challenge the 50-day SMA ($319).
The bears used the opportunity and pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA on May 31. Sellers will try to retest the psychological support at $300. If this level gives way, the BNB/USDT pair may descend to the support line.
Contrarily, if the price rebounds off $300, it will suggest that lower levels are attracting buyers. That may keep the pair inside the upper half of the channel for a few more days. A new up move could begin after bulls kick the price above the channel.
XRP price analysis
XRP’s (XRP) rally is facing profit-booking near the overhead resistance of $0.54. The first support is at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.49 and then at the 50% retracement level of $0.48.
If the price rebounds off this support zone, it will suggest that the sentiment has changed from selling on rallies to buying on dips. That will enhance the prospects of a rally above $0.54. The XRP/USDT pair may then rise to $0.58.
Contrarily, if the price breaks below $0.48, it will suggest that the bullish momentum has weakened. That could tug the price to the moving averages and keep the price stuck inside the range for a few more days.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) turned down from the 50-day SMA ($0.38) on May 29, indicating that the bears are protecting this level aggressively.
The sellers will try to pull the price below the uptrend line. This is an important level for the buyers to defend because a break below it will invalidate the bullish ascending triangle pattern. That could then start a downswing to $0.30.
Alternatively, if the price turns up from the current level or the uptrend line, it will suggest that bulls are buying on dips. The bulls will then make one more attempt to thrust the price above the 50-day SMA. If they can pull it off, the ADA/USDT pair may surge toward the $0.42 to $0.44 resistance zone.
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin’s (DOGE) recovery stalled at the 20-day EMA ($0.07), indicating that the sentiment remains negative and relief rallies are being sold into.
The bears will try to strengthen their position by yanking the price below the immediate support at $0.07. If they manage to do that, the DOGE/USDT pair may start its journey toward the next support at $0.06.
Time is running out for the bulls. If they want to start a recovery, they will have to quickly drive the price above the 20-day EMA. The pair could then rally to the overhead resistance of $0.08. A break above this level will suggest that the bulls are on a comeback.
Polygon price analysis
Polygon’s (MATIC) recovery fizzled out near the overhead resistance at $0.94, indicating that the bears are not willing to let go of their advantage.
The bears are trying to sustain the price below the 20-day EMA ($0.90). If they do that, the MATIC/USDT pair could drop to the vital support at $0.82. This remains the key level to watch out for on the downside because if it cracks, the selling may intensify and the pair is likely to plunge to $0.69.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 50-day SMA ($0.96). Such a move will open the doors for a possible rally to the downtrend line.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) has been stuck between the moving averages for the past four days. This suggests that the bulls are buying the dips to the 20-day EMA ($20.50) but the bears remain active at higher levels.
The 20-day EMA is flattish and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating range-bound action in the near term. If the price dips below the 20-day EMA, the SOL/USDT pair could slide to the solid support at $18.70. A bounce off this level will suggest a consolidation between $18.70 and the 50-day SMA.
If the price bounces off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will again try to overcome the obstacle at the 50-day SMA. If they succeed, the pair could start a rally to $24 and then to $27.12.
Polkadot price analysis
The bulls pushed Polkadot (DOT) above the 20-day EMA ($5.40) on May 28, but they could not build upon this breakout. This shows that demand dries up at higher levels.
The bears have pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA. Sellers will next try to yank the price below the critical support at $5.15. If they manage to do that, the DOT/USDT pair could start a downward move toward $4.22.
If the price rebounds off $5.15, it will suggest that bulls continue to defend this level aggressively. The pair could then consolidate between $5.15 and $5.56 for a few more days. The bulls will gain the upper hand in the short term if they clear the 50-day SMA ($5.74).
Litecoin price analysis
The price action of the past few weeks has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern in Litecoin (LTC). This indicates indecision among the bulls and the bears about the next directional move.
The price action inside a triangle is generally random and volatile. If the price sustains below the moving averages, the LTC/USDT pair could drop to the uptrend line. This line is likely to attract buying from the bulls.
Another possibility is that the price turns up from the moving averages. In that case, the pair will attempt to rise to the resistance line. A break and close above this level will indicate the start of a new up move. The pattern target of this setup is $142.
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This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.