Trefis’ BTC forecast analytics is based on fundamentals of supply and demand, where demand is the number of users and the amount of transactions, and supply is the number of available BTC. Trefis pointed out significant recent losses in total transaction volumes across crypto exchanges, and attributes a surplus in supply and subsequent drop in price to Mt. Gox dumping BTC onto exchanges this spring.
“Adjusting our forecast for transaction volumes… leads to a year-end price target of around $12,500 – down from our earlier estimate of $15,000.”
Trefis’ interactive Bitcoin Price Estimator reflects the number of unique BTC users, as well as transaction volumes for each month till the end of 2018. At press time, BTC market capitalization is over $131 bln according to Coinmarketcap.
Trefis noted that while the major cryptocurrency has seen some gains over the last days of May, it still declined sharply over the month, having dropped to monthly lows after almost touching the $10,000 mark.
Recently, the crypto market’s low capitalization was noted in a study by the Dutch government. The study found that low trading volumes in addition to minimal institutional exposure made crypto a low risk to the country’s financial stability.
Earlier in May, blockchain venture capitalist Spencer Bogart claimed that Bitcoin will trade “at least” above $10,000 by the year’s end, also arguing that most altcoins are possibly “overvalued” and “have significant headwind.”
While the overall Bitcoin year-end price estimations see a downward trend, Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee recently said that he still expects it to reach as high as $25,000 by the end of this year.