Bitcoin (BTC) set another dubious record on July 15 as realized volatility sank to its lowest in three years.
According to data from on-chain analytics resource Skew, 30-day realized volatility recorded its smallest reading since 2017 this week.
BTC volatility echoes pre-$20K position
Realized volatility refers to volatility as defined by various timespans. Low volatility tends to concern traders and analysts, particularly over extended periods, as a kickback is all too often triggered afterward.
Earlier this month, 10-day realized volatility hit 20%, its lowest since the period immediately before BTC/USD crashed to $3,100 in December 2018.
As Cointelegraph reported earlier this month, trading volumes were also down at the time, fuelling expectations that volatility would soon return to the market.
Since then, Bitcoin’s anticipated “big move” has yet to appear, with a trading corridor between $9,000 and $9,500 remaining in place.
BTC/USD realized volatility comparison. Source: Skew/ Twitter
For Cointelegraph Markets analyst filbfilb, however, there was plenty of potential for a major correction towards $8,000. Specifically, he told subscribers of his Telegram trading channel on Tuesday, the 20-week moving average (MA) at $8,200 provided a realistic support level. Alternatively, BTC should reclaim its 50-day moving average, currently close to $9,400.
“Overall my position remains very cautious,” he summarized.
“Until then it’s just sideways chop until proven otherwise so I'm happy to sit that out and wait for confirmation.”
Tesla “eating Bitcoin’s lunch”
In the meantime, Bitcoin is providing little inspiration, with even Tesla stock beating it on volatility.
“#Bitcoin realized volatility on a three years low, Tesla is eating bitcoin's lunch!” Skew commented.
Tesla has surprised by posting multiple new highs despite multiple calls for a massive correction continuing for several months. Since its recent bottom on March 18, $TSLA has gained over 300% to trade at $1,516 at press time.
Even at $1,200, Tesla’s market cap was over 30% larger than Bitcoin’s.
Tesla stock price eight-month chart. Source: TradingView