Today in crypto: Willy Woo says Bitcoin OGs will buy up Satoshi’s 1 million BTC if quantum attack happens, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle still exists but is now driven by politics, The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) publishes crypto custody bulletin for investors.
Will Woo says Bitcoin OGs would buy Satoshi Nakamoto’s coins if they flood the market
Willy Woo, a long-term Bitcoin (BTC) holder, said that Bitcoin OG’s would buy Satoshi Nakamoto’s 1 million BTC if a sufficiently powerful quantum computer emerges, hacks those wallets, and then dumps all those coins onto the market.
This would keep the price afloat because “Many OGs would be in to buy the flash crash,” Woo said, but clarified that the 4 million total coins stuck in old, vulnerable wallet address types hitting the market at once could cause a multi-year bear market. Woo added:
“[The] BTC network would survive; most coins are not immediately vulnerable. However, 4 million coins in P2PK addresses, including Satoshi’s, have their public keys in the open and are vulnerable.”
The crypto community continues to debate the effects of a quantum computer breaking modern cryptography and encryption standards, with many analysts and crypto industry executives advocating for migration to quantum-resistant addresses before a sufficiently powerful quantum computer is developed.
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is intact, but driven by politics and liquidity: Analyst
Bitcoin’s long-debated four-year cycle is still playing out, but the forces behind it have shifted away from the halving toward politics and liquidity, according to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research.
Speaking on The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast, Thielen argued that the idea of the four-year cycle being “broken” misses the point. In his view, the cycle remains intact, but it is no longer dictated by Bitcoin (BTC)’s programmed supply cuts. Instead, it is increasingly shaped by US election timelines, central bank policy and the flow of capital into risk assets.
Thielen pointed to historical market peaks in 2013, 2017 and 2021, all of which occurred in the fourth quarter. Those peaks, he said, align more closely with presidential election cycles and broader political uncertainty than with the timing of Bitcoin halvings, which have shifted throughout the calendar over the years.
“There's this uncertainty that the sitting president's party is going to lose a lot of seats. I think that's also the odds now that Trump would lose or Republicans would lose a lot of seats in the House, and therefore, maybe he's not going to push a lot of his agenda through anymore,” he said.
SEC publishes crypto custody guide to educate investors
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) published a guide outlining best practices for crypto custody and storage for the investing public.
The SEC’s guide outlines the pros and cons of using cold storage versus online hot wallets, how to choose a third-party custodian, and the importance of keeping private keys safe, which are used to sign crypto transactions and verify identity onchain.
Investors who choose third-party custody should always be aware of how the custodian plans to use the assets placed in their care, including whether or not those assets will be lent out or commingled with assets belonging to other clients, according to the SEC.
The SEC’s investor bulletin promoting best practices for crypto storage and custody reflects the sweeping regulatory pivot at the agency following the 2024 presidential election in the US and the appointment of Paul Atkins as SEC chair.