Bitcoin may surpass $80,000 by the end of 2024 as derivatives markets and holder profitability show significant bullish signals, according to a report from crypto exchange Bitfinex shared with Cointelegraph.
The Bitcoin (BTC) price could be heading above $80,000 based on the structure of the derivatives markets, Bitfinex analysts told Cointelegraph, with options markets showing potential for a post-United States election rally. They added:
“Options market positioning indicates that over the past few weeks, end-of-year options have seen a significant rise in call open interest. The December 27th expiry and calls with an $80,000 strike price have been the primary areas of interest.”
Daily BTC volume throughout the US elections. Source: Standard Chartered Research, Bitfinex
On Oct. 28, Bitcoin surpassed the $70,000 psychological resistance for the first time since June 10, with BTC price just 3.77% below its all-time high of about $73,800.
Investors are looking for the next major signal that could catalyze Bitcoin’s historic post-halving rally, which may come in a week with the US presidential elections.
Related: Polymarket whale raises Trump odds, sparking manipulation concerns
US elections anticipation is driving higher Bitcoin ETF inflows
The upcoming elections are also inspiring more optimism in Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) buyers, which may also contribute to Bitcoin’s price rise.
On Oct. 28, the US Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $479 million worth of net positive inflows — the second consecutive day above the $400 million mark — Farside Investors data shows.
Bitcoin ETF Flow (USD, million). Source: Farside Investors
Bitcoin ETF inflows have been robust over the past 12 trading days, surpassing a cumulative $4 billion, according to Nate Geraci, the president of ETF Store, who wrote in an Oct. 29 X post:
“Over the past 12 trading days, spot BTC ETFs have taken in nearly $4 billion. For context, less than 10% of the 3,800+ ETFs in existence even have $4 billion in total assets.”
Bitcoin ETF issuers by holdings. Source: Dune
Geraci added that BlackRock’s IBIT ETF had accounted for more than $2.6 billion of these inflows during the past two weeks.
A victory by former President Donald Trump in the Nov. 5 US presidential election is widely seen as a bullish development for risk assets like Bitcoin, which has correlated with Trump’s rising election odds, Bitfinex analysts added.
Related: Trump pump? Bitcoin climbs to 2.5-month high as Trump widens lead
Nearly 98% of Bitcoin holders are in profit
Fueling more optimism among crypto investors, nearly 99% of all Bitcoin holders are currently in profit as Bitcoin traded above $71,000.
Over 97.6% of all Bitcoin holders were profitable on their investment as of Oct. 29, according to CryptoQuant data.
Bitcoin supply in profit, percentage. Source: CryptoQuant
Still, the last time over 97% of the Bitcoin supply was in the green was on June 5, before the price fell from above $71,100 to below $56,000 within a month.
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