Bitcoin will soon enter what one analyst is calling “batshit season,” which could see the price of BTC surge as high as $150,000 by the end of 2024 — but others suggest a short-term seller overhang could dent the rally.
In an Aug. 26 X post, Real Vision analyst Jamie Coutts said that “unless something has fundamentally changed,” Bitcoin (BTC) price action is still on track to enter “batshit season,” also known as the Banana Zone, a term coined by Real Vision founder Raoul Pal.
In an attached chart, Coutts noted that in the previous two bull cycles, Bitcoin had notched new respective all-time highs in the 365 days following local US Dollar Index peaks.
He suggested that if BTC follows previous bull market patterns, it could surge more than 100% from an approximate price of $64,000 to reach as high as $150,000 by the end of 2024.
Bitcoin could rally over 100% if it follows previous cycle trends. Source: Jamie Coutts
However, other analysts aren’t as optimistic in the short term. Pseudonymous CryptoQuant researcher “XBTManager” pointed to high volumes of potential selling pressure for Bitcoin.
Short-term BTC sellers have become active
In an Aug. 27 research note, XBTManager noted that large short-term Bitcoin sellers had “become active.” He explained that while Bitcoin had staged a successful rally last week, some stagnant metrics had begun showing signs of activity once again.
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“Short-term holders transferred 33,155 Bitcoin as shown by the 1w-1m spent output age bands. This could present immediate selling pressure. The slowdown in price suggests that Bitcoin might initiate a free pullback,” wrote XBTManager.
Short-term holders transferred 33,155 Bitcoin in recent weeks. Source: CryptoQuant
He advised “extra caution” if these figures were to increase in the coming days, adding that a potential sell-off could intensify.
On Aug. 23, Bitcoin’s price gained 6.2% and has since held steady above the $63,000 support level.
Despite this price action, many Bitcoin derivatives traders have yet to flip bullish, indicating skepticism about the recent move upward.
The Bitcoin futures premium — a key indicator of risk appetite for derivatives — has stagnated at around 6% for the last month. This indicates that many professional traders remain cautious about opening leveraged long positions.
Bitcoin two-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas
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