Bitcoin (BTC) has not matched all-time highs against the S&P 500, gold and others — but doing so is “a matter of if, not when.”
In a post on X on Nov. 15, Caleb Franzen, creator of financial research resource Cubic Analytics, predicted BTC price outperformance next.
Bitcoin macro breakout not yet reality
Bitcoin may have tapped $93,500 and gained nearly 50% in Q4, but against many macro assets, the BTC price breakout has yet to happen.
Franzen notes that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes remain unbeaten by Bitcoin — something also true of the NYSE FANG+ tech stock index and gold.
“Just a matter of when, not if,” he predicted.
BTC vs. S&P500, gold. Source: Caleb Franzen
For US stocks, the key moment in Bitcoin’s history was early 2021, even before BTC/USD set all-time highs of $69,000, which remained in place for over two years.
While dollar records have since fallen over and over, Bitcoin is still working on setting new all-time highs across the macro asset spectrum.
Last week, Cointelegraph reported on the market now gaining ground against gold, which had a head start of several months in setting new all-time highs in dollar terms.
At the time, Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, forecasted a “rapid repricing” now that BTC/USD had broken out.
Subsequently, Edwards shared a long-term chart of gold’s own breakout in the 2000s after spending 20 years below previous all-time highs from 1980. BTC/USD, he suggested, could now do likewise.
XAU/USD vs. BTC/USD. Source: Charles Edwards/X
BTC price bears warn of $72,000 “at least”
In a dramatic alternative take, a popular but increasingly infamous Bitcoin trader is now implying that a crash across risk assets is now due.
Related: Bitcoin price can hit $100K by Thanksgiving if bulls hold key level
On Nov. 15, Il Capo of Crypto returned to his Telegram channel with a photograph that suggested he expected a black swan event to hit.
While no commentary was given, the post rapidly began to circulate on social media, with users recalling Il Capo of Crypto’s $12,000 BTC price target, among other things.
As Cointelegraph reported, bearish perspectives on Bitcoin continue to surface, with fellow trader Credible Crypto recently calling for $50,000 or lower for the pair.
In his latest X analysis, Credible Crypto flagged $72,000 as the downside target to watch.
“If we take our highs at 93.8k in a clear, impulsive move that breaks 100k+ then 72k and below is likely gone until the next bear market,” he wrote alongside accompanying charts.
“If we instead sweep our highs and fail to produce a final, 5th subwave then it implies this move was indeed corrective and makes the odds of us retesting 70-72k AT LEAST exponentially higher.”
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Credible Crypto
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This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph's Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content.
