Is XRP price going to crash again?

XRP (XRP) price has recovered from its low of $1.61 reached on April 7, but it’s still trading below a key resistance zone. Will XRP’s price sustain the recovery or drop further in the coming days?

One of the clearest signs that there is more trouble ahead for XRP is the presence of negative funding rates and low open interest (OI) in its futures markets.

Funding rates are periodic payments made between long and short traders in perpetual futures contracts to keep prices aligned with the spot market. When this metric turns negative, it means short sellers are paying long holders, indicating that bearish sentiment dominates.

XRP funding rates have been hovering below 0% since early February, indicating bearish sentiment dominates the market.

Similarly, XRP’s OI in the futures market has dropped from its local peak of $7.87 billion on Jan. 17 to $3.06 billion as of April 10.

OI measures the total number of outstanding futures contracts, and a decrease suggests more traders are exiting positions.

Historically, assets with declining open interest struggle to maintain upward momentum, as there’s insufficient capital and enthusiasm to drive prices higher. For XRP, this could mean that even minor selling pressure might trigger a cascade of liquidations, especially if leveraged positions are unwound. 

Without renewed interest from institutional or retail traders, XRP’s price risks sliding back into a downward spiral.

Related: Ripple acquisition of Hidden Road a ‘defining moment’ for XRPL — Ripple CTO

XRP price runs into resistance at $2.20

XRP price traders are reassessing its breakout strength after the token failed to sustain momentum.

XRP’s 21.5% rally on April 9 was stopped by supplier congestion around the $2.20 level. XRP also failed to rise above this level on April 5, reinforcing the importance of this zone. The price is required to flip this level back into support to increase the chances of a sustained recovery.

The altcoin is still trading below the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, as shown in the chart below. The token now enjoys support at $1.86, embraced by the 200-day SMA.

A decisive close above the resistance level at $2.20 and later a rise above the 50-day SMA at $2.28, accompanied by high volume, could see XRP price rally toward the 100-day SMA around $2.50.

Contrarily, the RSI is still moving below the middle line, suggesting that the market conditions still favor the downside. 

As such, if XRP closes below the 200-day SMA at $1.86, it will drop lower to retest the local low at $1.61 or lower toward $1.07, as earlier predicted by veteran trader Peter Brandt.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.