Analysts who adhere to the efficient markets hypothesis, believe that the halving is already priced in and will not significantly affect the price. However, there are those who believe that markets are irrational and that the market dynamics is better described by behavioral economics instead — the field pioneered by Danny Kahneman, a psychologist, who received a Nobel Prize in economics for his groundbreaking work. At least, for the moment, the latter may have an upper hand.
Hedge against fiat?
Interestingly, even the “halving” of the price on Black Thursday, has not slowed down the growth of addresses holding at least 0.1 BTC. While those holding 0.1 BTC cannot be identified as “whales”, this growth likely reflects the greater adoption and accumulation by retail investors.
It also comes at a time when central banks around the world are flooding the economy with money. This may be an attempt on the part of the public to hedge their savings against the debasement of fiat currencies.
Source: Cointelegraph, Quandl
Though some find it undeniable that recent socio economic events will have a favorable effect on Bitcoin, only time will tell whether it is setting up for a 2017-like bull run.