If you’ve heard about the “four-year cycle” regarding Bitcoin, there’s a good chance you’ve stumbled across Bob Loukas’ work or followed someone who’s familiar with his theory. Loukas is arguably one of the first Bitcoin OGs to popularize the notion that most markets (not just BTC) tend to move in four-year cycles.
After calling the Bitcoin bottom in December 2018, Loukas has been methodically updating his followers about the market’s progress. Many of his updates center around intermediate analyses of 60-day cycles, which make up the broader four-year cycle trend. Beyond the four-year cycle, Loukas maintains that asset markets also form much broader 16-year cycles.
Not much is known about Loukas outside of his investment work. Based in New York City, Loukas helps to run Bitcoin Live, a membership website that educates users about cycle theory as it pertains to cryptocurrency. The site also features exclusive content from prominent market analysts Big Cheds and Peter Brandt, among others.
Loukas’ cycle theory gained widespread attention in 2021 as Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market rose to record highs. Because he marks four-year intervals from cycle low to cycle low, many of his followers were eyeing a blow-off top scenario for the asset class sometime between the fourth quarter of 2021 and the second quarter of 2022, leading to a cycle low sometime toward the end of 2022.
By the end of 2021, Loukas had amassed roughly 160,000 Twitter followers. His work has sparked fierce debate about whether Bitcoin’s cycle is lengthening or whether the arrival of institutions negates the general outlook on bull and bear markets. It’s important to note that the cycle theory doesn’t hinge on whether Bitcoin experiences a mania phase or not; it also does not depend on the quadrennial halving being a price catalyst. According to Loukas, a blow-off top scenario is the most likely outcome when analyzing previous market cycles as well as Bitcoin’s growing adoption curve. Regarding institutional involvement in the asset market, Loukas didn’t mince words:
“‘Institutional will never sell’ was always the stupidest meme out there. I maintain the next 4 yr cycle bear market will be worst of all because of them.”
2022 is expected to be a big year for the cycle theorist, as Bitcoin is set to conclude its current four-year interval. Loukas expects a late-2022 cycle low for the digital asset, paving the way for the next cycle. Although it’s not entirely clear how the current cycle will play out, much less the next four-year interval, Loukas previously speculated that the next quadrennial epoch could be defined by an early mania phase followed by a long bear market. In this case, the cycle would be “left translated” as opposed to “right translated,” which means most of the gains occur early in the cycle as opposed to later.
But as he writes in his bio, “my crystal ball is often wrong,” which means investors should use his cycle theory only as a guide for how the market could play out. Nevertheless, his model portfolio, which includes 30 BTC, currently has a net profit of 4,100%. That’s what you get for buying at the lows and accumulating more during major capitulation events, such as the March 2020 liquidation crisis.
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