PlanB #32

Creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model

PlanB & Creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model & background` PlanB & Creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model & poster`
PlanB & Creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model
Category Markets
person-quote
I use models to protect myself from emotions. Right now, most people, including myself, fear further decline of BTC price and want to sell. But S2F model shows BTC is at the low end of 50K–200K 1 SD [standard deviation] band, a buy signal. Likewise, 200K will feel like BTC will rise forever, but S2F says sell.

Biography:

PlanB is one of the most revered analysts in the cryptocurrency sector, mostly known for developing the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) and Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset (S2FX) models to quantify BTC’s value based on its preprogrammed scarcity. In detail, S2F represents the amount of Bitcoin that enters the market annually against its total supply of 21 million tokens. Bitcoin’s supply issuance has been encoded into its protocol, which makes its flow easily predictable.

In addition, PlanB’s S2F model assumes a concrete statistical relationship between stock, flow and market value. As a result, it sees Bitcoin’s price growing to exponentially higher levels — even toward a value of $1 million per token — due to its reduced stock-to-flow ratio. These bold predictions have made PlanB one of the most popular cryptocurrency analysts.

The analyst has never revealed his real identity to the world, and the only thing that is known for sure — based on his previous podcast interviews — is that he is a man living in the Netherlands and has 25 years of experience in financial markets. PlanB also works as an investment manager for a team that handles a balance sheet worth billions of dollars.

PlanB’s 2021:

2021 was the first year that saw PlanB’s S2F price predictions turn out to be wrong on all accords. The accuracy of the model, which had been correctly forecasting Bitcoin price targets since its introduction in March 2019, came into question twice in 2021: during the May–June and November–December price crashes. In both instances, the price of Bitcoin deviated from the S2F model, including his highly popular prediction that 1 BTC would be worth $100,000 to $135,000 by the end of 2021 — which failed to come to fruition.

PlanB admitted that he felt “a bit uneasy” when Bitcoin’s price deviated from the model, wondering if it will hold and validate or fail and invalidate. Meanwhile, Bitcoin failing to hit $100,000 also hampered PlanB’s plans to “go dark.” The analyst had expressed his intentions to disappear from the public arena once BTC reached the magic number. But despite that miss at the end of 2021, PlanB was spot on in predicting three Bitcoin monthly closes in a row: $47,000 in August, $43,000 in September and $61,000 in October. 

PlanB’s 2022:

There is still time for PlanB to end up on the right side of history, and 2022 will be a make-or-break year for his reputation as one of the cryptocurrency sector’s most venerated analysts. He hasn’t yet dumped his S2F model following its failed predictions and anticipates Bitcoin to attract buyers near its new price lows.

Nonetheless, based on his statements in 2021, PlanB has not ruled out S2F’s overall invalidation. However, he remains hopeful that BTC will “add another zero” to its valuation over the next couple of years, regardless of whether the S2F predictions come true.The analyst could end up expiring the model should Bitcoin’s price keep deviating from the model or even fall to new lows in 2022. Until then, though, the market can likely expect regular S2F updates from PlanB in anticipation that they become accurate again.