Bitcoin has proven a few things true over its relatively short existence in human history. One, it has proven that it is not going anywhere, regardless of how many times the mainstream media pushes it into the cornfields. Two, the inherent value of Bitcoin’s currency and underlying technology are so strong and undeniable that the world’s largest nations, banks, and corporations are building their future business models around it. Thirdly, Bitcoin is the world’s newest financial “safe haven,” as market turmoil means great gains can be made in the world of digital currency like Bitcoin.
This truth may come into play once again, as the year comes to a close. Reports out of Italy indicate another European Union member nation is beginning to implode, and a banking “bail-in,” or “debt conversion” are starting in earnest. Is another Bitcoin “bull-run” in the offing?
Haven’t we met before?
According to multiple sources, including ZeroHedge, Reuters and Bloomberg, Italy’s banking system is beginning to implode starting with Monte dei Paschi, Italy’s third-largest bank, which has been lending money for over 540 years.
The details of how they will execute the bail-in, which may also be called a “restructuring” or a "voluntarily equitization,” are not of terrible importance. What is important is how the Italian market will react, specifically over the next two weeks, as Monte Paschi tries, and may fail to, recapitalize. If this ends in the same way as Cyprus and Greece have experienced most recently, expect an “upward volatility” in Bitcoin that may last through the rest of the year.
Personally, I learned about Bitcoin through the first-of-its-kind “bail-in” of Cyprus in the spring of 2013. Over the course of 90 days, Bitcoin values grew tenfold as an economic panic set in, bringing Bitcoin national press from CNN and others as the newest of virtual safety nets.
History repeated itself last summer in Greece, as Bitcoin was pushed to an annual high by the economic collapse of the island nation in the Mediterranean Sea. In June, the “Brexit” vote forced the British Pound to drop over 10 percent, and this market value quickly switched to Bitcoin, spiking over $100. Most recently, the election of Donald J. Trump as the 45th United States President, added a quick boost to Bitcoin of almost 4 percent in one night, as the specter of Trump spooked the markets.
Can a bull-run be guaranteed? No, but we’ve seen this movie before and know how it ends. As more E.U. members implode, and as Bitcoin continues to show its intrepid strength, year after year, where would you move your money in a crisis? Bitcoin is proving to be the best play in town, regardless of what country your town resides in. Given the fact that Italy is a considerably larger economy than Greece or Cyprus - Italy is ranked fourth in the E.U. overall, behind France - it looks like it could be a very Merry Christmas for Bitcoin owners.