A small rise in Ethereum’s price has ended with a turn and a fall back to the starting point. Ethereum has once again returned back inside its flat. What will come next?
Following a meet-up with Vitalik Buterin in Shanghai, an intraday upward trend was formed. Ether’s price, after fortifying at the top limit of the long-term flat near $13, has formed an upward impulse toward the accumulated volume of sell orders near $14.5.
As reported by Vitalik himself, the switch to PoS is preliminarily planned for summer 2017. The reason for such a long delay is; at the moment there are no working algorithms for PoS mining itself, and for the process of transfer to it. The uncertainty of the time frame means that its influence on the price movement is weak, so the trend wasn’t a long one.
Also, as was predicted on the day of the Shanghai conference by Jeffrey Wilke, one of the core developers, Ethereum was targeted by a DDoS attack on September 22. As a direct consequence, the network began running much slower. This attack was initiated right when Ether’s price has turned downward near $13.5. The price has formed a short-term downward trend, and returned to the top limit of the long-term sideways movement, remaining inside the flat.
The structure of the upward movement is broken, with Ethereum being back inside the flat. If there had been more support from the bulls, Ethereum’s price would at least be able to fortify above $13. But that didn’t happen, and at the moment the flat is continuing. A key level near $12 is worthy of note. An accumulated volume of buy orders there is a good support line for the upward trend. The importance of this volume is confirmed by two technicals intersecting there: Fibonacci 61.8% retracement and diagonal channel. These instruments are indicative of the most probable peak of a correction of a certain scale. Both Fibonacci fans and the diagonal channel are a classic. By synthesizing these instruments, one can measure price fluctuations within any time scale with a certain degree of precision.
The $12 mark is the most likely peak for a downward correction, and after reaching it, there will be two likely scenarios for future development. One option is that there will be a rebound and the upward movement will continue for at least one more flat wave towards $14. Alternatively, Ethereum’s price can have sufficient support from the bears, and after fortifying it at that mark, will form a turn. The fall has potential to be a powerful one, with price going down as low as $8, given how few sell orders are there between $12 and $8. It will be more profitable for the bears to bring Ether’s price down to $8.
For an upward scenario to come true, Ethereum has to pass the level of $15. The $15 mark is the new upper limit of the long-term flat. That is why the price is likely to rebound from that level, and then continue moving inside the flat. A fortification at that level will be indicative of the bulls’ strength, after which an upward impulse can follow, just as it did on September 19.
Ethereum Classic is still falling. After fortifying at $1.3, ETCUSD has formed a downward turn, thus creating a sub-wave of the downward trend. But the bulls have showed themselves at the peak of that trend. That is a testament to the fact that there is still support for Ethereum Classic.
Despite having support from the bulls, the correction range for ETC will continue right up to $2. The level of $2 is a likely peak for the correction towards the downward trend. An intersection of the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement and accumulated volume confirms that. That’s why that mark can be profitable for the bears. In case of a fortification at that level, we can expect further growth.
Key technicals, where a change of trends is most likely to happen:
- If ETHUSD’s price turns downward at the level of $12, there will be a good chance for a fall towards $8. In order for ETHUSD to grow more confidently, it has to fortify and form a turn at the level of $15.
- For a more likely turn to the growth on Ethereum Classic, it has to fortify and form a turn at $2.