Ethereum is currently traded between two key technical levels. An exit from that range will most likely provoke a weekly trend.

Will the long-term upward trend continue?

Ethereum’s price continues correcting toward the downward trend. So far, the structure of this downward trend was not disrupted. That’s why the advantage is held by the bears at the moment. The downward rebound has achieved its minimal target. The upward movement is of a larger scale than the previous correction. Because the minimal rebound has been fulfilled and the structure of the downward trend was not disrupted at the $14.2 mark, it can be assumed that the bears are holding the advantage. Thus, the odds are on the side of a continued downward movement, within a correction of a larger scale.

ETH/USD price chart 1

However, it’s hard to make a more certain prediction until Ethereum reacts to one of the key technical levels. The price of $14.2 is considered “high” in the current situation, and $10.2 is “low.” Why is that so? Because these are the breaking points both for the downward and the upward movements. In the future, Ethereum’s price will go to other levels. That’s why a flat usually forms between such levels, until an imbalance forms on the market.

ETH/Kraken price chart 1

The fiat currencies are still undergoing flat movements. Those flat are corrections toward the upward dollar trend. Most currencies have reached the minimal correction targets of their downward trends, which have formed after Brexit. Consequently, there can be a new sharp drop, which could provoke the dollar’s price to rise. That scenario will take place, if the currencies do not fortify at the current levels. If they do, there will be a chance for most currencies to form a turn to growth, which will make the dollar go into a deeper correction.

ETH/USD price chart 2

If the world currencies do form a turn to growth, it can influence Ethereum. In that case Ethereum’s price will have a chance to go back to $20. But for a more confident signal, Ethereum has to fortify at a key resistance line of $14.2. A fortification and formation of a turn at the level of $14.2 will indicate that the bulls are holding the advantage, and a turn to growth is most likely to happen. If that is the case, the long-term upward trend will probably continue with a powerful impulse. That usually happens when a movement is already defined. And where is a movement most likely to define itself, if not at breaking points?

ETH/Kraken price chart 2

It’s worth to mention an upcoming event on Ethereum’s market. A hardfork is planned by Ethereum’s devs to happen on July 20-21. The fork is expected to return the Ether tokens, which were stolen during The DAO attack, to their rightful owners. This event could have a positive effect on Ethereum’s trends.

Ethereum’s price is currently inside a flat. The price will choose a specific direction, after it passes the limits of that flat - $14.2 and $10.2.