Bitcoin (BTC) dropped from a high of $47,200 on April 5 to a low of $42,107 on April 8, indicating a possible selling by short-term traders who may have preferred to lock in their profits. However, the price action is still stuck in a tight range during the weekend, indicating that supply and demand are in balance.
Although the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is in the fear zone, Bitcoin whales on crypto exchange Bitfinex remained unfazed and continued to purchase BTC.
Interestingly enough, one large investor continued to buy $1 million of Bitcoin every day without attempting to time the market, using the strategy of dollar-cost averaging.
Another whale that utilized the dip to add more Bitcoin to its existing stockpile was Terra. This week, the wallet associated with the Luna Foundation Guard added 4,130 BTC, taking its total holding to 39,897.98 BTC.
Could Bitcoin bounce back sharply due to whale buying? Will select altcoins also turn higher in the short term? Let’s study the charts of the top-five cryptocurrencies that may outperform if the sentiment improves.
Bitcoin bounced off the support at $42,594 on April 7, but the bulls could not clear the barrier at the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $43,922 on April 8. This may have attracted selling by traders, which pulled the price below the $42,594 support.
A minor positive is that the bulls are attempting to defend the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $42,620. If bulls push and sustain the price above the 20-day exponential moving average of $43,923, it will increase the possibility of range-bound action in the short term. The BTC/Tether (USDT) pair may then oscillate between the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA of $48,219 for a few days.
On the contrary, a weak bounce off the 50-day SMA will suggest a lack of aggressive buying at the current levels. The bears will then try to capitalize on this opportunity and sink the pair below the 50-day SMA. If they succeed, the pair could drop to the psychological level at $40,000 and if this level also cracks, the next stop may be the support line of the ascending channel.
The 4-hour chart shows that the rebound off the $42,594 support fizzled out at the 20-EMA. This indicates selling by the bears at higher levels.
The 20-EMA is sloping down while the relative strength index (RSI) is in the negative zone, indicating an advantage to sellers.
If the price turns down and breaks below $42,000, the selling could intensify. The pair could then drop to $40,000, where the buyers may again attempt to arrest the decline.
Alternatively, a break and close above the 20-EMA could open the doors for a possible recovery to the 50-SMA. The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above $45,400 to gain the upper hand.
Near Protocol (NEAR) turned down sharply from the stiff overhead resistance at $20 on April 8, and the long wick on the day’s candlestick suggests that bears are aggressively defending the overhead resistance.
The NEAR/USDT pair could drop to the 20-day EMA of $15, which could act as a strong support. If the price rebounds off this level, it will suggest that bulls continue to buy on dips. The bulls will then make one more attempt to push the pair to a new all-time high. The rising 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory suggest an advantage to buyers.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price plummets below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that traders may be booking profits aggressively. That could open the doors for a possible drop to the 50-day SMA of $12.
The 4-hour chart shows that the price has repeatedly bounced from just below the 50-SMA. This indicates that buyers continue to accumulate on dips. If the price turns up from the current level and rises above the 20-EMA, the bulls will again try to push the price toward $20.
Conversely, if the price turns down and sustains below $16, the short-term traders may rush to the exit. That could pull the pair toward $14.50. If this level cracks, it will suggest that bears are back in the driver’s seat.
FTX Token (FTT) broke and closed above $49 on March 24 but the bulls could not flip the level into support during the retest. The price slipped below the 200-day SMA of $47 and has reached the 50-day SMA of $45.
A minor positive is that the buyers are attempting to defend the 50-day SMA. If the bulls push the price back above the 200-day SMA and the overhead resistance at $49, it will suggest strong buying at lower levels.
The bullish momentum could pick up on a break and close above $54. The FTT/USDT pair could then rally to the pattern target at $66.
Conversely, if the price fails to break above the 200-day SMA, the possibility of a break below the uptrend line of the triangle increases. If that happens, the pair could drop to $40 and later to $37.
The 4-hour chart shows that the pair has been falling inside a descending channel pattern. Although the bears pulled the price below the support line of the channel, they could not sustain the lower levels. This suggests that the break below the channel may have been a bear trap.
If bulls push and sustain the price above the 20-EMA, the pair could rise to the 50-SMA. This level could again act as a resistance, but the next stop could be the downtrend line if the bulls overcome it. A break and close above this barrier could signal a possible change in trend.
This positive view will invalidate if the price turns down from the current level and plummets below $44.
Related: Monero defies crypto market slump with 10% XMR price rally — what's next?
Ethereum Classic (ETC) formed a double bottom pattern when it broke and closed above the overhead resistance at $38. The price then rallied to the pattern target at $52 on March 29, where profit-booking set in. This pulled the price to the breakout level at $38.
The buyers will try to flip the breakout level at $38 into support. If they succeed, it will suggest a change in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips.
If the price rises from the current level or rebounds off $38 and breaks above $45, it will suggest that the correction may be over. The buyers will then again try to push the ETC/USDT pair to $53. A break and close above this level will signal the resumption of the up-move.
This positive view will invalidate if the price continues lower and plummets below the 50-day SMA of $35.
The 4-hour chart shows that the pair rebounded off the $38 level with strength, but the bulls are struggling to sustain the price above the 20-EMA. This indicates that bears are selling at higher levels.
A minor positive has been that the bulls have not given up much ground from the 20-EMA. This increases the possibility of a break above this resistance. If that happens, the price could rise to the 50-SMA. A break and close above this resistance could open the doors for a possible up-move to $48 and then to $53.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks below $38, the selling could intensify and the pair could drop to $32.
Monero (XMR) signaled a potential trend change when it broke and closed above the downtrend line. Although the bears tried to pull the price back below the downtrend line, the bulls did not relent.
The bears are attempting to stall the rally at the immediate resistance at $239, but the long tail on today’s candlestick shows buying at lower levels. The upsloping 20-day EMA of $216 and the RSI in the positive territory indicate an advantage to buyers.
If buyers sustain the price above $239, the XMR/USDT could further pick up momentum and rally to $255.
On the other hand, if the price turns down from the current level, it will suggest that bears are aggressively defending the overhead resistance at $239. A break and close below the 20-day EMA will be the first sign that the bullish momentum may be weakening. The pair could then drop to the 50-day SMA of $190.
The pair has been in a gradual uptrend for the past few days. The failure by the bulls to sustain the price above $239 attracted profit-booking from short-term traders, but the bears could not pull the pair below the 20-EMA. This suggests strong buying at lower levels.
The up-move may accelerate if buyers drive and sustain the price above $239. Alternatively, if the price once again turns down from $239, the pair may drop to $209 and remain range-bound between these two levels for a few days.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.