The purpose of the Seasonal Tokens project is to allow investors to trade tokens for more tokens of a different type, continually increasing the total number of tokens in the investment. For that to be possible, the tokens need to have different market prices.
The chart below shows the theoretical prices of the tokens relative to the average of all four, based on the rate and cost of production. The anticipated effect of the Spring halving is shown in the chart. The downward arrows indicate opportunities to trade tokens for more tokens.
If an investor has Summer, Autumn or Winter tokens today, they can trade them for cheaper tokens and increase the total number of tokens in their investment. In the long term, the four different tokens are equally valuable because whichever one is most expensive will keep rotating.
Later this year, after the rate of production of Spring is cut in half, Spring will become the most expensive to produce. The value of Spring tokens for farming will also increase correspondingly. When Spring is more expensive than the others, it will be possible to trade Spring tokens for more tokens of other types.
In this way, investors can keep increasing the total number of tokens in the investment. The investment will increase in value even if the average dollar price of the tokens doesn’t change over time.
This is unique to Seasonal Tokens. If users invest in any other coin, they need the dollar price of that coin to increase over time for the investment to grow in value. With Seasonal Tokens, this isn’t necessary.
The big question is: Does it work? The project attempts to control the relative prices of the four tokens by controlling the supply from mining and the demand from farming. The tokens can bring value to investors that other projects can’t provide, but only if the market prices can really be controlled this way.
The chart above shows how the prices of the tokens have evolved since farming started in January. As one can see, there are fluctuations. However, the prices rarely cross over each other. They’re staying in the correct order, with Winter being the most expensive and Spring being the cheapest.
There are clearly market forces keeping the prices in the right order. According to the simplest model of market prices, each price does a “random walk”, which in this case would make the token prices cross over each other and wander away from each other randomly.
This isn’t happening. The supply and demand from mining and farming affect each price, preventing the fluctuations from accumulating over time and turning into a random walk. Instead, the prices are staying close to the values that they should theoretically have based on the cost of production and the value of farming.
In short, the prices appear to be under control. The market forces appear to be working as expected. Investors can trade tokens for more tokens today, so the project has achieved its goal so far.
The next test of the token’s economics will happen in the second half of this year when Spring is anticipated to rise in price above the other tokens. If it rises as expected, then it will be clear that the relative market prices can not only be controlled to keep them in order but can also be made to oscillate around one another during the long term.
This would mean that investors truly can continue to trade tokens for more tokens and keep increasing the number of tokens in their investments. It would also mean that investors can make an ongoing profit without risking losses measured in tokens or relying on an increase in the dollar price.
The story that the price charts tell about Seasonal Tokens is, “So far, so good.” The Spring price will be closely watched later this year to see if the project can really deliver the investment opportunity envisioned.
To learn more about this project visit our website.