Polymarket, a decentralized crypto betting platform, has seen over $160,000 of trading volume in their second coming prediction market.
At the moment, the market puts the return at a 3% chance. Rules of the market are fairly simple, “This market will resolve to “Yes” if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.”
There may be some debate as to what counts as “credible sources”. We know how the story of the first coming went so if similar markets were offered 2000 years ago, the market may have settled on “no”.
The coming of crypto betting
Polymarket allows users to use cryptocurrency to speculate on a wide variety of events from political markets to sports to religious prophets. The site launched in 2020 and operates on blockchain technology, serving as a decentralized digital ledger.
Last year, they gained popularity in the US Presidential prediction market with over $3.3 billion wagered. After the election, users have continued actively using the platform. Around $1.7 billion in trading volume was recorded in December 2024 among over 300,000 users.
It has not been plain sailing for Polymarket, however. The FBI raided CEO Shayne Coplan’s residence over investigations into illegal gambling by US users. The site had agreed to exclude US residents from markets in a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission back in 2022. They also paid a £1.4 million fine.
Similarly, other countries have restricted the platform. In January, Singapore blocked the site for unlicensed betting. France suspended access in November 2024, and Belgium banned the site in February this year.
Similar sites, Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com have also experienced a backlash from states recently for their growing number of prediction markets. States accuse the platforms of running unlicensed sports betting. Kalshi have argued that they offer licensed markets under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Other religious betting
Other crypto betting sites, Predictor and Augur, have previously had markets on the return of Jesus Christ. Augur, a decntralized crypto betting site built on Ethereum, allows users to create their own markets.
Additionally, traditional betting platforms such as Betfair and Smarkets released markets on the topic but closed quickly over fears of public backlash.
The market has been up for 17 days and attracted a lot of attention in the media as well as stimulating activity on Polymarket. To date, 246 users have commented below the line, with opinion divided. One user commented, “This platform gets more pathetic by the day” but there’s no such things as bad publicity, is there?
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