Donald Trump Jr. has been announced as a strategic advisor to Kalshi, a prediction market exchange.
Kalshi’s name was often mentioned in the build-up to last year’s American election after the company won a court victory over the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The decision allowed the company to offer legal election betting in the United States.
Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi, told CNBC: “Don has always been at the forefront of these types of spaces and new technologies. He’s always been very in tune with what the American people feel and want.”
Given the proximity of Trump Jr.’s appointment to his father’s inauguration, Mansour was pressed on whether the appointment was made with political considerations in mind. He responded, “We’re not a political company in any way, shape or form. We’re a company that’s deeply obsessed with building a great prediction market that brings truth to the world.”
Trump Jr. lauds Kalshi’s election market success
Trump Jr. took to social media platform X to suggest Kalshi’s prediction market meant he knew the outcome of the election hours before the official announcement. He said: “On Election night at Mar-a-Lago, while biased outlets called the race a coin toss, my family and close friends used the prediction market Kalshi to know we won hours ahead of the fake news media.”
He continued: “I immediately knew I had to contribute to their mission. Today, I am proud to announce that I am joining Kalshi as a strategic advisor. The Kalshi team has worked hard, sued the Biden administration, and achieved the impossible feat of becoming the first legal prediction market in the US. I’m excited to be a part of what they’re building.”
In the official release, Kalshi mentioned Don Jr.’s use of the platform, asserting: “Don Jr.’s firsthand experience using our platform on election night confirmed what we’ve always believed—prediction markets are the fastest, most powerful tool for uncovering the truth. His recognition of Kalshi’s potential highlights the growing need for transparent, data-driven insights in a world overwhelmed by misinformation.”
Kalshi became the first fully CFTC-regulated financial exchange in the United States of America, specifically for event contracts in 2020.
CFTC vs Kalshi – it’s not over yet
The CFTC initially succeeded in blocking Kalshi’s election-specific prediction markets, arguing that the offering was tied to gambling harm and could cause market manipulation.
The company sued the CFTC in response, arguing that the regulator exceeded its authority. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit upheld this stance. The next stage in the legal proceedings will be oral arguments on 17 January 2025.
Under its remit, the CFTC can stop contracts relating to ‘terrorism, assassination, war and gaming,’ which has yet to be defined. It can also stop contracts deemed ‘contrary to the public interest.’ Because of the lack of strict definition, the rules remain open to interpretation and challenge.
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