Following the popularity of markets on March Madness, Kalshi has added NBA moneylines to its prediction markets. Previously, the events contract site only offered futures markets on the NBA.
Kalshi reported trading of over $500 million on the NCAA tournaments and would hope their NBA markets will be just as popular. The markets have appeared on site just in time for the NBA playoffs starting this weekend.
NBA moneylines mark new territory
Crypto.com also started offering NBA moneylines recently, marking the ever-expanding reach of events trading. The crypto-based trading site delved into sports prediction markets in December and is slowly expanding their offerings.
Kalshi has been leading the way in most other sports. Their event contracts on the Masters saw $87 million of trading volume, which was more than the Super Bowl. The opening of NBA moneylines was undoubtedly spurred on by Crypto.com moving into these markets.
It is the first time Kalshi has made a single match event. Even their March Madness markets were billed as predicting who would advance to the next stage.
The NBA moneylines are on-site in almost the same terms as sportsbooks. For example, “Atlanta vs Orlando Winner?”. Users can then make a “prediction” on the outcome and trade this prediction.
States against prediction markets
After the success of March Madness, several state regulators issued cease-and-desist letters to Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com. The expansion into NBA match markets will no doubt spark further reaction.
Kalshi scored a victory in court last week, however. A judge in Nevada ruled that sports prediction markets are legal. He also said the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has exclusive jurisdiction over Kalshi’s operations.
This aligns with Kalshi’s view that the CFTC is the only authority that can limit their markets. Even then, when the CFTC stepped in to try to stop election markets, Kalshi sued. Judges ruled in their favor on that matter, too.
These legal successes have added to Kalshi’s confidence to expand into new territory and push more boundaries between sports betting and events trading. The CFTC will hold a roundtable to discuss the sports markets later this month.
Depending on the outcome of those discussions, the expansion of markets may be halted. Given Kalshi’s success in courts so far, though, we would expect more markets to follow the NBA moneylines.
Other alternative betting platforms, such as offshore, crypto sportsbooks, and sweepstakes also offer sports markets. Especially in states that currently prohibit online sports betting, these platforms see a lot of traffic.
Future event trading
Crypto.com currently offer NFL and UEFA Champions League futures trading, so if the NBA markets prove a success, we would expect moneylines to appear for the new NFL season. The Champions League is wrapping up for this season, but markets might follow there for the 2025-26 campaign.
Next year’s World Cup in the US, Mexico, and Canada will also be a prime target for the sports prediction markets. The tournament is generally the most watched sporting event in the world, attracting interest in all continents.
It will be the first time it is staged in the US since betting laws were relaxed and will, therefore, attract a lot of interest from gamblers.
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