Is Bitcoin shifting to a 2-year cycle?

For more than a decade, Bitcoin investors have relied on the familiar four-year cycle to navigate bull runs, capitulations and market shifts driven by halving events. In 2025, that long-standing roadmap is beginning to look outdated — and analysts are seeking a new framework to understand where Bitcoin (BTC) is headed next.

Some argue that institutional capital is reshaping the market. Others highlight the weakening impact of the halving, the rise of AI as a competing investment frontier, or global liquidity trends that no longer line up with old patterns. Whatever the cause, one thing is clear: Bitcoin doesn’t seem to be moving like it used to.

In this exclusive Cointelegraph interview, Jeff Park, partner and chief investment officer at ProCap BTC, challenges the assumptions behind the four-year cycle, claiming that Bitcoin may now be transitioning into a much shorter, more dynamic two-year cycle.

Park argues that Bitcoin’s market structure has undergone a fundamental shift as institutional flows operate under different incentives than those of retail investors.

At the core of Park’s argument is a provocative idea: Shorter cycles could dramatically reshape how investors think about timing, volatility and Bitcoin’s potential path through 2026.

Park also touches on why some players prefer short-term weakness, how liquidity patterns intersect with the new cycle and what this shift could mean for the next major move.

Watch the complete interview with Jeff Park on the Cointelegraph YouTube channel for his full breakdown of the two-year cycle theory and its implications for Bitcoin’s future.