Ether price analysis: Will ETH continue to decline in December?

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), extended its downturn into December after falling about 30% over the past three months, raising worries about how much further the sell-off could run by year’s end.

Key takeaways:

• ETH could slide toward $2,500–$2,200 if MVRV support and the pennant break down.
• A potential falling wedge breakout keeps bulls’ hopes alive for a rally to $3,550.

ETH/USDT monthly chart. Source: TradingView

Ether’s MVRV puts $2,500 in focus

As of Tuesday, Ether retested its −0.5σ MVRV deviation band (teal), currently sitting near $2,820–$2,830, as support for the second time in a week, Glassnode data shows.

Ether MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands. Source: Glassnode

The MVRV bands compare Ether’s market price with the levels where holders last moved their coins, often highlighting key support and resistance zones.

As a result, the −0.5σ band repeatedly acted as an important mid-cycle support during downtrends.

In March, ETH’s decisive close below the −0.5σ band preceded a 40% decline, with price gravitating toward the realized price band (purple) as the first major downside target.

Ethereum MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands. Source: Glassnode

A sustained breakdown below the −0.5σ support this time would again shift focus toward the realized price near $2,500, a level that has historically functioned as a downside magnet during corrective market phases.

Ether pennant hints at 20% correction next

Ether’s recent price action compressed into a bearish pennant on the daily chart, a triangle-shaped continuation pattern that typically forms after sharp declines and resolves in the direction of the prior trend.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

A confirmed pennant breakdown would open the door to a measured move toward the $2,200–$2,220 area, roughly 20% below current levels. The zone aligned with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the 2025 rally and a prior demand cluster from April.

The downside target also appeared around the apex of a falling wedge pattern shared by analyst Don.

Source: X

Falling wedges typically result in breakouts; however, this may indicate that ETH may form a local bottom around the $2,200-2,220 zone in December.

Related: Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade: Scaling rollups without breaking the core

ETH can rise toward $3,550 going into the new year if the price breaks above the wedge’s upper trendline, as shown below.

ETH/USDT daily price chart. Source: TradingView

This upside target aligns with the ETH price predictions made by multiple analysts during its recent downturns. Other Ether valuation models further project ETH prices above $4,000, deeming the cryptocurrency “undervalued.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.