Bitcoin Price Analysis: 5/17/2016

A short-term downward impulse has played out on Bitcoin. That movement has a chance to grow into a medium-term downward trend.

Will the downward movement continue?

One of the possible scenarios has played out, and it can’t be called favorable. The price has ignored all the established rules, which happens from time to time. For cases like that there is always probability, which can be used to choose the statistically favorable situations, but an unprofitable outcome is always possible. While the market was counting on a rebound or a fortification followed by a turn from the predicted level of $455.6, Bitcoin’s price has fulfilled the worst scenario.

Bitcoin Price Chart

The current short-term trend is downward. In order to calculate the most likely point for a turn, we need to synthesize several key instruments. The slanted channel is indicative of the structure of the movement. After breaking through that channel, the movement will become a larger scale than the current downward trend. The level of large trading volumes at $456.8 and the Fibonacci level 38 are also important. Thus, we have the key resistance of $456.8. There are 3 scenarios which can play out at that level: a rebound which will end the downward trend, a fortification followed by a turn to growth, and the worst one - an impulse without any reaction at the key level.

Bitcoin Price Chart

The worst scenario is the least likely one.

The highest odds are on the side of either a rebound or a fortification and a turn to growth at the level of $456.8.