Bitcoin (BTC) sellers are getting increasingly louder as several more bearish signals have emerged for this week.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s monthly MACD rollover keeps risks skewed toward further downside.
MVRV bands suggest BTC may still fall toward key mean-reversion levels.
Bitcoin MACD flips red for the first time this cycle
In October, Bitcoin’s monthly moving average convergence divergence (MACD) crossed into bearish territory for the first time in the current bull market.
Since 2014, the monthly MACD has flipped red on five separate occasions. In four of those cases, as trader Brett highlighted, Bitcoin went on to record drawdowns of about 50% before finding the floor.
Only once, in 2019, did the signal align closely with a market bottom, and even then, the price continued falling for two months after the initial crossover.
Since the October MACD crossover, Bitcoin declined by about 35%. The indicator suggested room for an additional 25% dip by January 2026, placing BTC’s next key downside target near the $62,200 level.
That is near the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) support target of previous bear markets at around $66,300.
Bitcoin can go below $50,000: Peter Brandt
A similar risk zone appeared on long-term trend charts shared by veteran trader Peter Brandt.
His projections indicated that Bitcoin was likely to drift toward the upper boundary of its rising support channel in the sub-$70,000 area. Trader Crypto Patel foresaw a similar target using Fibonacci retracement lines, as shown below.
Brandt projected deeper downside targets extending into the mid-$40,000s if selling pressure accelerates, or down 50% from current levels.
A double top fractal structure, as predicted by analyst Tracer, shared a similar outcome.
Bitcoin’s MVRV bands favor the bears
Onchain valuation metrics echo the bearish technical setup.
Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) extreme deviation bands indicate that BTC is still trading well above its −0.5σ band, a level that has historically served as a gravity zone during corrective phases.
In the 2018, 2019 and 2022 bear markets, Bitcoin repeatedly retraced to this −0.5σ region before establishing more sustainable bottoms, according to data from Glassnode.
Related: ‘Inevitable’ $50K BTC price crash: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
A similar move today would imply a downside toward $76,250, aligning closely with targets implied by Brandt and Patel.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.