In less than a week, the much talked about halving will come and go. Nonetheless, haggling about the price of Bitcoin will remain. There seems to be more Bitcoin enthusiasts who share insinuations that the halving will shoot the price to the moon than those who think it will go to the loom - or at least let the price remain unaffected.
Each camp is clear and certain of the picture it has. What is dicey, however, is which to follow of both camps, especially if you are a Bitcoin enthusiast with a keen interest in what becomes of the digital currency. It is nearly unimaginable what the price will be when more regular people buy Bitcoin with a limited fixed supply.
Several developments have not helped the situation. Recently, we had the Brexit vote which pushed the boundary of the digital currency’s level of adoption upwards as global currency markets were shaken up. The EU credit rating has been downgraded to AA from AA+ which is also a blow.
It is gradually becoming a common discussion that Bitcoin seems to be the only blockchain system that has seen use outside of those who are tech-savvy because it fulfils a need.
In its third report on blockchain, this being to analyze whether a technology like Bitcoin has the potential to offer a superior alternative to the financial system today, Citigroup cited that "cryptocurrencies' potential impact will likely be more from its ability to open up new markets and reach new customers" in the financial sector. In addition, a whopping 71% of polled respondents thinks the U.S. economic system is "rigged in favor of certain groups," according to a new poll by Marketplace and Edison Research.
The other blow is to the credit card industry. A court threw out a $7.25 billion antitrust settlement reached by Visa Inc and MasterCard Inc with millions of retailers that accused the card networks of improperly fixing credit and debit card fees. After the Uncertainty, the economy and policy speech by the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, the market dipped slightly.
Guessing the Bitcoin price
The only hard data available presently is the price history which has no predictive value, making it hard to depend on to make predictions, says a comment on Reddit. What is certain, however, is today’s price of Bitcoin. Anything else is guesswork as shared in the views of Reddit users.
For example, user jmw74 says that nobody knows how much 'buy and hold' and 'sell and stay in fiat' has been happening. As exchange volume is mostly just trading back and forth, it doesn't tell you anything. The amount of 'sell and stay in fiat' aside from miners has been tiny. In this case halving could have a massive effect.
“In reality, this assumption isn't true - there are more people who "sell and don't buy back" than just the miners. We don't know how many more. It could be relatively small compared to what miners produce, or relatively large. My gut says "relatively small". Nobody is getting out of bitcoin for the long term at these prices.”
User Kitten-Smuggler believes that if the price stays at 645 then after the halving it will be 1800 bitcoins each day, or $1.15 million: “Less money is needed to sustain current price levels, and the lessened supply should eventually put a squeeze on the market to find a new equilibrium.”
wtfcowisown refers to Satoshi who once said that "Each Bitcoin lost makes the rest more valuable." The user suggests that the halvening should force scarcity onto Bitcoin, which is why the price is expected to increase dramatically.
RedditTooAddictive agrees that the price depends on the fine balance of supply and demand. And considering how many Bitcoins are bought every 10 minutes, it will be surprising if the price does not moon.
Darkhack argues that people who are keeping their heads cool are even speculating a massive selloff and return to $300 Bitcoins when the gains that some people are expecting don't come.
The user concludes:
“I'm bullish on Bitcoin and do think we'll see a decent ROI, but such a downturn is a much more realistic scenario than Bitcoins going past $2000.”
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