Key takeaways:
XRP surged 12% to $2.53 on Trump’s stimulus news.
Increased profit-taking by long-term holders may slow the recovery.
XRP price resistance at $2.60-$2.80 will be a formidable obstacle.
XRP (XRP) price surged 12% on Monday following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a $2,000 stimulus check for most Americans. Now trading near $2.53, the continuation of the rally to $3 could be curtailed by increased profit-realization and stiff overhead resistance.
XRP profit realization jumps 240%
XRP’s potential to stage a sustained rally this week is in question as long-term holders (LTHs) — those who have held XRP for more than 155 days — ramp up profit-taking.
Glassnode noted that previous profit realization waves actually aligned with price rallies as LTHs secured significant gains.
“Unlike previous profit realization waves that aligned with rallies, profit realization volume (7D-SMA) surged by 240%, from $65 million per day to $220 million per day since late September,” Glassnode wrote.
Related: What happens if ETH stops being deflationary and XRP becomes the global liquidity benchmark?
This profit realization coincided with a 25% decline in the XRP price to $2.30 from $3.09.
“This divergence underscores distribution into weakness, not strength.”
This aligns with persistence selling by whales, who intensified their activity as the XRP price fell below $3.
Santiment's Supply Distribution metric indicates that whales holding 1 million to 10 million XRP tokens have offloaded an additional 500,000 tokens in the last 48 hours alone.
These entities now hold about 6.23 billion XRP, down from about 7 billion at the beginning of September.
However, outflows from whale wallets have eased after $650 million in selling, hinting at a potential bottom formation for XRP.
This may boost XRP’s price in the coming weeks, particularly when combined with a rising risk-on sentiment, sparked by the likely reopening of the US government this week.
XRP price faces stiff resistance at $2.80
The XRP/USD pair has been in a downtrend, oscillating with a descending parallel channel, as shown in the chart below.
The price is retesting the resistance at $2.60, an area where the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 100-day SMA converge.
Breaking above this barrier would increase the chances of a rally toward the upper boundary of the descending channel at $2.80 (the 100-day SMA).
Bulls would have to overcome this resistance for a shot at $3 and later to a seven-year high at $3.66.
The Glassnode distribution heatmap indicates that a significant cluster of supply is around $2.80 (the 100-day SMA), where nearly 1.86 billion XRP were acquired, which could hinder any recovery efforts.
XRP’s “next stop is breaking $2.70 resistance,” said technical analyst ChartNerd in a post on X, adding:
“Once this resistance is cleared, the pathway to ATH begins.”
As Cointelegraph reported, XRP’s climb above the 50-day SMA ($2.63) and later to the downtrend line at $2.80 will signal demand at lower levels, and facilitate a recovery to the psychological $3 mark.
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