Note from the Author: Follow me (@Tone_LLT) for more timely updates throughout the week on price developments, latest charts and overall Bitcoin news commentary.
Last Week’s Review
Last Week we concluded with the following:
Bitcoin is in no man’s land sitting here at US$270, the advice to those that dare take it is to do nothing while it finds a direction and just watch as it tries to navigate the US$255 – US285 range.
Two scenarios in order of higher probabilities:
Bearish: The odds are slightly leaning to more pain in the near future. This could be starting tomorrow as the price drops under our US$255 floor or perhaps even a month from now but there is definitely no indication that we have hit the bottom. Once prices drop under the US$250-255 range, there is open air going down to the US$200-210 zone
Bullish: We are still keeping an eye on that counter trend rally from the US$255 low. It is not looking good, but the possibility of moving back up to the US$315 area before the downside sets in is technically still alive.
The atmosphere was leaning to the downside, but technically the call could not have been made till the floor of US$255 was broken. Once that happened, it was exactly what was stated and worse. When the Bearish outcome was written just over a week ago some though it was crazy to say the moment US$255 is breached US$200 would come in a blink of an eye, and as many traders learn on the job, it can fall way more than expected, just like it can rise way more than expected. The big question now is, did we finally have the bottom of this 14-month down slide?
As usual we will look at the weekly chart for a long-term picture
Once we fell under the trend line it was all over pretty quickly and we dropped all the way to US$150. Since then, however, the bounce was pretty swift and looking at it right now, it is looking like there is a little more life left in the bounce. The candle formed is a borderline hammer, which is a sign of reversal and the volume spike rivals that of the Mt. Gox collapse time period.
Overview of TNABC in Miami
No news or educational sections today due to time constraints and this weekly update being already late. Just wanted to update readers on the seen down in Miami Florida for The North American Bitcoin Conference.
It was very unfortunate that Josh Garza did not take the stage at any point. It appears he was there, and I was later told I was standing just a few feet away from him in the vendor area at one point. To be honest, I did not really know what he looked like. The reason for this lack of interest is that it is now starting to be pretty clear that the hype behind PayCoin was a scam, but this analyst and hopefully the readers
Everyone needs to learn that there is no magic investment to be rich. The early adopters of Bitcoin are not liked by those with Socialist tendencies and have a hard time comprehending that most of them got in when it worthless - they had no idea it was going to be worth this much. This opportunity comes once or twice in a lifetime and those that missed it (like myself) just need to live with it. As mentioned here many times, if you should not trade with no more than 10-15% of your Bitcoin holding, don’t even think of investing more than half of that in some up and coming altcoin no mater what the hype.
As for the rest of the conference it was great but very hectic due to the fact that there were way too many important people present from the world of Bitcion. The speaking engagements were none stop and it was impossible to see them all. One of the more interesting ones was the Venture Capital panel as a virtual Roger Ver was able to both listen and speak on stage.
Perhaps a full article will be out soon about my time at the conference, but it was definitely a worthwhile experience and Bitcoin fans are strongly encouraged to attend. There is a major need for more new faces and especially beginners.
Here is the usual one-year look back using daily candles.
The chart here pretty much says it all. What looked unreal a month ago has been more than achieved and we fell about US$150 as the bullish channel was broken to the downside. The bounce also looks impressive and the odds are favoring at least a test of the breakdown area in the US$250 zone.
The Short-Term view also looks pretty positive at the moment, there is always a chance of immediate downside pressure but this picture looks identical to what we see on the one-year look back. There is also a chance that we finally bottomed but a little too early to make the call. You can also visualize the formation of both an Ascending triangle and/or a Symmetric triangle with a decent upside. We’ll need perhaps a day or two to draw them in, so please keep an eye on twitter for the updates.
We are turning short term Bullish here and are looking for prices to rise back to the vicinity of the breakdown level of US$250. When we get there, the most likely outcome would be more downside and if this downside has a quick reversal above US$200 we might be able to finally call the low.
Two scenarios in order of higher probabilities:
Bearish: Since our primary case is bullish, we are keeping an eye on the opposite move. The prices have hung around the US$190-200 zone long enough that we can consider that area our new line in the sand, a break of this zone at this point will most likely retest the lows in the US$150 area.
Bullish: Unless some major EU bank collapses next week sending half of Europe’s wealth into bitcoins, don’t expect much, and US$250 would be a nice start. A break above that takes us to the 50-day SMA, which is quickly moving down but currently stands at US$290.
Reference Point: Tuesday Jan 20 1:00 am ET, Bitfinex Price US$210.
About the author
Tone Vays is a 10 year veteran of Wall Street working for the likes of JP Morgan Chase and Bear Sterns within their Asset Management divisions. Trading experience includes Equities, Options, Futures and more recently Crypto-Currencies. He is a Bitcoin believer who frequently helps run the live exchange (Satoshi Square) at the NYC Bitcoin Center and more recently started speaking at Bitcoin Conferences world wide. He also runs his own personal blog called LibertyLifeTrail.
Disclaimer: Articles regarding the potential movement in crypto-currency prices are not to be treated as trading advice. Neither CoinTelegraph nor the Author assumes responsibility for any trade losses as the final decision on trade execution lies with the reader. Always remember that only those in possession of the private keys are in control of the money.