It appears the article that was written over the weekend was quite timely.
A few days ago bitcoin reached the Denial phase of the famous cycle, now it appears to be at a point of Fear and Desperation going into Panic. Volumes are picking up to an appropriate level and price has followed surging lower as of this writing it reached a low of US$166 and is now near US$190. See chart below:
Below is the bitcoin chart from the previous article with more comments added:
As was pointed out, the bottom did not lock in because the down move in price was too orderly without massive volume and no typical bottoming patterns had formed.
THIS IS STILL THE CASE. Volume has picked up dramatically once we broke the last visible support level at 255. It has been running well above its 50 day moving average and the down move is beginning to look more disorderly, which are good signs that we are progressing towards a bottom.
In fact, the last 2 days have brought the highest volume days of the year. Huge surges in volume are typical in big down moves. Buyers are still coming in at certain prices in an attempt to support the stock. These buyers will be overrun as we search for a bottom. As a side note, the Mt. Gox low was U$133 and I believe this area is one that we should note as the next area, especially after the price dipped to US$166 overnight.
What is the price looking for?
This is essentially a search and discovery mission as for the most part over the last few years where bitcoin has been a traders’ paradise due to its volatility and respect of many technical levels. This is beginning to change as we move from trading on technicals to trading on fundamentals.
This means that the price will find a comfortable place to rest based on what people perceive the “value” of the technology itself is worth as well as where in the timeline of deployment with regards to the many of the projects that have been announced.
This is called price discovery and it usually happens once bubbles burst. There is an old saying: “Fundamentals only matter at extremes.” As bitcoin’s price continues its decline, we are learning this lesson right in front of our eyes.
Bottoming is a process and will not take place overnight as the price still has more work to do on the down side before any type of real bottom forms. Signs of a bottom include a tremendous drop in volume and a buying strike as people wait to see if a bottom has truly formed so they do not get burned again.
About the author
George Samman is the co-founder of BTC.sx, the world’s first Bitcoin-only trading platform. He is a former Wall Street Senior Portfolio Manager and Market Strategist as well as a technical analyst. He holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation. A seasoned trader, George has over ten years of experience in the financial markets.
You can follow George on twitter @sammantic.
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