The key word of the last week has been whipsaw. This term is applied in trading circles when the price head’s in one direction, and then is quickly followed by a movement in the opposite direction.
The price of Bitcoin has entered a period of high volatility and is whipsawing all over the place. A few simple words here: traders beware. It is time to be vigilant and wait for the price to resolve it itself one way or the other and form a trend before putting money to work.
The chart below shows how hard it has been to predict the price movement as we have moved from bearish to bullish back to bearish and are now back in the cloud.
Right now price is bumping up against the top of resistance and a break through would be a bullish signal. The Lagging Line, which is the slowest of the Lines, has yet to pierce into the cloud and confirm a bullish move; if it does, that should mean we are seeing a bullish transition forming.
Based on recent trading it would be prudent to look at other indicators to confirm the move. The chart below shows some indicators we will use to get confirmations in the event that price breaks resistance.
The RSI is in bullish zone despite the recent downturn and is has plenty of room to run if the price confirms to the upside. Money Flow has been very bullish and continues to be so, as money has continued to come into Bitcoin despite all the volatility in price.
MACD is close to crossing over, which would trigger a buy signal. What’s even more significant is that MACD is now in positive territory when making the cross over, so this is another potential bullish signal.
On Balance Volume (OBV) is trending at a low level - an upside move in price should be confirmed with a rising OBV. Using other indicators to confirm is essential when analyzing charts particularly when we are in a period of uncertainty and waiting for signals to trade.
We don’t have any definite trading signals as price has created a false breakout followed by a false breakdown. The price is now back in the cloud and rubbing against resistance. The weight of the evidence leans bullish and if price confirms, a buy signal will be triggered.
In the meantime, there is no need to rush into a trade. The price will tell us what we need to know soon enough. A price closing above the resistance level of 383.23 (we are currently at 391) would put the price back in a bullish zone and generate a buy signal. A close below 352 would be a breach of support and a sell signal.
About the author
George Samman is the co-founder and COO of BTC.sx, the world’s first Bitcoin-only trading platform. He is a former Wall Street Senior Portfolio Manager and Market Strategist as well as a technical analyst. He holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation. A seasoned trader, George has over ten years of experience in the financial markets.
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