Bitcoin (BTC) put in fresh gains overnight into May 31 as the monthly close looked set to seal losses of around 15%.
Asks stack up above $33,000
The pair thus capped the second day of more bullish momentum, this nonetheless failing to impress analysts, who widely believed that the moves were untrustworthy.
Those misgivings continued on the day amid discussions over whether the latest gains amounted to a “dead cat bounce.”
Is this #BTC movement real? I think not. The rise has been sold...— M_Ernest_₿ (@M_Ernest_) May 30, 2022
1- Inflow of >3,500 BTC in the spot market at its maximum (30.7k).
2- Negative Delta with a daily green candle of 4.5%. (delta divergence).
3- Also positive gamma. MM stops the market. pic.twitter.com/I1rEhjH0nq
“BTC is poised for a bigger move. Before you ape in, remember how crypto likes to squeeze shorts and trap longs,” on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators wrote in one of several tweets over the past 24 hours:
“You can mitigate risk by waiting to confirm breakout or fakeout. FireCharts shows where liquidity rests in the order book. Monthly close Tues.”
Order book data from major exchange Binance, meanwhile, showed a solid $61 million sell-wall appearing at $33,500 at the time of writing.
Popular Twitter account Il Capo of Crypto further continued a bearish stance while admitting that the bounce had run contrary to previous forecasts.
Nice push from the bulls yesterday. This week I've been mostly wrong because I thought we were going down and didn't expect this bounce. However, this move up is showing the same signs as the move that deviated above 45k-46k.— il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) May 31, 2022
Bearish scenario still in play. https://t.co/ktv0jbC6aY
Fellow account Venturefounder added that BTC/USD would need to reclaim its 200-day moving average near $43,000 to “resume a new bull market,” calling such a target an “uphill battle.”
Whales bide their time
Amid unimpressive volumes accompanying the bounce, meanwhile, additional concerns focused on whales.
As noted by Caue Oliveira, analyst at Brazilian analytics outfit BlockTrends, Bitcoin’s largest entities have yet to show faith in recent lows being a macro floor.
“Whales/institutions not yet deployed all their firepower on the market!” he summarized in a Twitter thread:
“These large entities continue to reduce activity, exposing their caution with the global scenario. A close look at their moves can provide the true signal of a real reversal.”
An accompanying chart showed a steep drop-off in whale movements in May.
Continuing, Oliveira said that activity from institutional platform Coinbase Pro likewise suggested that most investors were waiting on the sidelines.
Whale-focused monitoring resource Whalemap further contended that without a piercing of the 200-week moving average, Bitcoin had not yet put in a true macro bottom.
What are the chances now? pic.twitter.com/WoSDMip8mU— whalemap (@whale_map) May 30, 2022
That moving average was at around $22,200 as of May 31.
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