Gulden lead developer, Malcolm MacLeod, has stated that the current Bitcoin price rally is not real growth and that eventually it will burst. In an exclusive interview with Cointelegraph, he explained that the price rise is merely from contemplation and not actual network expansion.
"I think we are way up into speculative territory on not only Bitcoin but a bunch of other altcoins, all of which have gone up quite ridiculously."
The developer indicated that there are no real fundamentals to support the price rise and that it’s hard to confirm that Bitcoin is suddenly seeing huge amounts of people using it for day to day business.
"Ultimately, I think we are in a bubble and at some point, it is going to have to come to an end, but in the meantime, it could easily go up again before that. When things are based on pure speculation like this it is anyone's guess: we could easily see $3000 or even $4000, but we could just as easily see the price tumble back down to $1000. I think anyone who pretends there is certainty in either direction is being dishonest."
Bitcoin isn't expanding
MacLeod disagrees that the Bitcoin network is growing and that more people are getting involved and using it.
When asked, he said:
"I don't think so, I tried to buy something with Bitcoin yesterday on a popular retail site and the transaction timed out twice. I have a hard time believing anyone is using it for anything other than trading and speculation right now."
The mastermind of PoW² revealed that he will be surprised if most people's Bitcoins even leaves exchanges at this point. From his outlook, Bitcoin is not being used for everyday purchases at the marketplace.
According to MacLeod, the lack of purchasers being converted to users derives from several factors. Primarily, it is the fact that Bitcoin itself suffers from multiple usability issues, especially the current transaction queue issues being one of the more well-known ones.
"It is difficult and slow to use and simply not appealing to most people, as the wallets are too confusing for regular people. At Gulden, we are working hard to improve on these issues and it shows in our real user growth we are achieving."
Secondly, he believes it is the way in which most people are introduced to Bitcoin. A majority of the reporting about Bitcoin in the present is price based, and thus people are buying in because of a ‘fear of missing out’. MacLeod feels none of them truly believe in or care for the technology in any way, and most are probably unaware of the supposed benefits that blockchain technology is even meant to bring. Rather, it is just a ‘gold rush’ for many people.
Cointelegraph was interested in knowing if the situation could be remedied.
"I am not sure that Bitcoin themselves have the freedom to make the changes necessary to improve the situation, even if they were willing, which I am not sure they are since their focus appears to be on things other than usability," MacLeod indicated. "I believe that ultimately coins like Gulden and others will instead start to fill this role and that those who seek something that is usable will ultimately be attracted to us."
He further suggested that in the long run, when the ‘gold rush’ ends, it will only be the projects that have managed to achieve actual usability that will be the long-term winners.
When asked when exactly the ‘gold rush’ will come to an end, MacLeod’s answered:
"The nature of these things makes them very hard to predict, people were calling the ‘subprime’ bubble for several years before it finally happened, likewise the ‘dotcom’ bubble. It is my feeling that we should see something in the last quarter of this year or first quarter of 2018, but your guess is as good as mine.”