Hedgeable, a digital wealth manager founded in 2009, asked 300 members of the Bitcoin community for one, two, and three-year price predictions earlier this month. They asked respondents to categorize themselves as entrepreneurs, Bitcoin enthusiasts, traders, VC/Angel investors or media.
The results were as follows:
- Median 1 Year Estimate: US$377
- Median 2 Year Estimate: US$600
- Median 3 Year Estimate: US$1,453
With a 30% price drop just in January—almost an 80% decrease from December 2013's all-time high—Hedgeable reports that:
“Most bitcoin insiders are still bullish despite the massive amount of negativity.”
Just How Small Is Bitcoin?
If you compare it to fiat currencies, Bitcoin is still quite small. It has about the same market cap as the Belizean dollar. It's still smaller than the market caps of the fiats used in Nicaragua, Uganda, or the Bahamas.
“Even at the highest group of estimates - the US$1,453 consensus from Bitcoin enthusiasts in 3 years - Bitcoin would be smaller than the currencies of countries like Oman and Peru. This means that we are very early in the game and plenty of the Bitcoin story is still left to be written.”
Who's the Bullest? Enthusiasts vs. Traders
The lowest Year 1 estimate came from the traders, and the highest from the Bitcoin enthusiasts. In fact, the highest overall estimates came from Bitcoin enthusiasts, while the lowest overall estimates came from the media.
Traders didn't see any major gains in 2015, but their estimates pick back up with prediction increases of 171% in Year 2 and 152% in Year 3.
Traditional Investor Outlook
“Angel and VC investors remain incredibly restrained in their estimates, despite pumping hundreds of millions into startups in the space.”
About 5% of respondents estimate a Bitcoin price of US$1 or lower after 3 years.
Add Your Voice
The survey is ongoing and can be taken at Hedgeable's Bitcoin Estimator app.
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