The current situation surrounding Ethereum could lead to a serious price fall. But such a movement could largely turn out to be speculation by big players, which will ultimately normalize the price towards its original position.
Around a month ago, we determined two scenarios for the development of the medium-term trend. ETC’s price has formed a downward trend, after cancelling the upward option. The medium-term target on Ethereum has been almost reached. In regards to the short-term targets, the downward impulse has also been confirmed. After a rebound towards the key level of $10.30, Ether’s price has failed to break through it, and has instead returned to the bottom mark. That is indicative of a big bear’s presence on the market. Given that a large volume near $10.50 hasn’t been bought out, the likelihood of an upward movement was lower than that of a fall. Thus, after a correction towards $10.30, a pretty good volume of buy stop orders has formed right up to $9.50. This volume exceeds that which has been present between $9.50 to $8.50. The majority of traders were counting on catching the start of an upward trend, which has allowed the opportunity for a big bear, and they naturally took advantage of it.
This entire situation provokes the majority of traders into listing sell orders. As we can see, the number of Ether sell stop orders significantly outweighs that of the buy orders.
The current situation with buy stop orders will be beneficial to a big bear. That is why if such a bear appears on the market, the volatility of Ether’s price will grow quite significantly. This is because people usually sell at the peak of the downward trend in order to buy back at a cheaper price, and that, in turn, will provoke the growth of the price, which will quite likely be towards the original point. Movements of this kind are called “false breakouts,” because in such situations the price usually returns to the initial level about as quickly as it fell.
But for that scenario to form, the price has to break through a key level near $8.30, and without stopping there.
In that case, and if the situation with the buy stop orders doesn’t change significantly, the minimal targets for the fall will be between $7.50 - $6.50.
Judging by the sell stop orders, the most likely scenario for the price is a flat-like movement. That is why we should refrain from considering any kind of significant growth until Ether gets out of the flat zone by going beyond $10.50.
As was expected for Ethereum Classic, the lack of bulls has provoked another fall. The price was fortifying at the bottom limit of the downward trend, which was indicative of a lack of support from the bulls. The structure of the downward trend remains intact, which allows the ETC price to keep falling.
The structure of any trend displays the power of either the bears or the bulls. That is why when the structure of a particular movement breaks, it means that the advantage is shifting hands to the opposite side. If a big bull disrupts the structure of Ethereum Classic’s downward trend, it will be followed by a flat. The price will have a chance to turn to growth.
The point where the structure of the downward trend is going to be broken is the key level, which appears at the intersection point of several important instruments: the diagonal channel, the Fibonacci retracement and the traders’ stop orders. Such a level has currently formed near $0.85. There is a chance for ETC’s price to turn to growth at that mark.
Key technicals where a change of trends is most likely:
- After breaking through the level of $8.30, there is a good chance for ETH/USD to fall towards $7.50, or even lower.
- The downward trend continues, but a key level near $0.85 can result in a turning point for ETC/USD, provided it fortifies at that mark.