An analyst has said there is very low probability that the Winklevoss brothers’ Bitcoin ETF will be approved in 2017 - due to “fear, uncertainty and doubt.”
It is probably the first time that an official statement has used FUD as a reason to give Bitcoin a vote of no confidence.
FUD means 25 percent approval chance
In a research note republished in a speculative article on CNBC, Needham’s Spencer Bogart stated that “in contrast to most of the people that we speak to in the industry, we think the probability that a Bitcoin ETF will be approved in 2017 is very low.”
The note continues:
“To be clear, we don't see any specific reason to disapprove the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF, but, instead, think that the confluence of fear, uncertainty and doubt coupled with basic incentives at the SEC (US Securities and Exchanges Commission) will make it very difficult to get approval."
No further detail was given regarding what the “basic incentives” are at the SEC, or what specific economic factors mean that the chances of the regulator approving Bitcoin ETF are “less than 25 percent.”
Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss initially set up the fund in 2013, but have still not received regulatory approval. Cryptocurrency industry commentators believe it is more a case of ‘when’ rather than ‘if’ the ETF is approved, but Bogart slams the optimism as “drastically overestimating” its chances.
“We think the positive effect that a Bitcoin ETF would have on the price of Bitcoin is vastly underappreciated,” he says, “and that the probability of approval is drastically overestimated within the industry.”
Crypto industry level-headed
CNBC notes that success would mean in excess of $300 mln of investment flowing into Bitcoin.
Bogart’s opinion is not shared widely, however, even by other mainstream commentators such as Bloomberg, which stated in November there were more than sixty ETFs it considers “more evaporative” than Bitcoin.
In an interview with Cointelegraph last week, Mycelium wallet’s Dmitry Murashchik cast additional doubt on the “overestimation” the analyst mentions. A regulatory green light to a Bitcoin ETF would mean good things for the industry, he stated, but would hardly be a watershed moment.
“It would certainly help, but probably not a lot,” he said. “People don't look into what comprises the funds they invest in. But the resulting price rise and extra credibility would no doubt help a little.”