Key takeaways:
XLM hit a yearly high of $0.52, with immediate targets set on cycle highs at $0.63.
Peter Brandt said XLM has the most bullish chart, with $0.20 as support and $1 as the breakout level.
Stellar Lumens (XLM) rallied to $0.52 on Friday. The move follows an 87% over the last seven days and mirrors similar gains from XRP (XRP). On Friday, XRP reached new year-to-date highs at $3.65, and XLM could follow suit as both assets share a 100-day correlation index of 0.95.
Is XLM is the most bullish chart?
Veteran trader and analyst Peter Brandt said XLM currently exhibits the most bullish market structure among all significant crypto assets. In a recent X post, Brandt shared a monthly chart of XLM, highlighting the technical conditions necessary for a sustained rally. He noted,
“XLM MUST MUST remain above Apr low and MUST MUST close decisively above $1. Until then this chart will remain range bound.”
According to Brandt’s analysis, the critical support sits at the April low of $0.20, roughly 58% below current market prices. However, reclaiming and holding above the $1 threshold remains a formidable challenge.
XLM’s all-time high stands at $0.93, witnessed in 2018, but in the interim, immediate resistance zones near $0.62 and $0.80 could attract significant selling before any breakout toward $1.
Analyzing the XLM/BTC pair offers additional insight to strengthen the bullish case. XLM has consistently underperformed against Bitcoin since the previous cycle, but a bullish break of structure above the 0.000006 level on the BTC pair could mark a trend reversal. A decisive move may catalyze XLM to outperform the broader market, potentially initiating a price discovery phase in Q4 2025.
Related: Dave Portnoy dumped his XRP two weeks ago: ‘I want to cry’
XLM open interest reaches new highs at $589 million
The XLM futures market is gaining momentum, with open interest hitting a new all-time high of $589 million. Notably, funding rates remain neutral compared to Q4 2024, indicating a balanced market with no signs of excessive long or short positioning, an environment often preceding significant price moves.
The recent uptrend appears spot-driven, as the aggregated cumulative volume delta (CVD) has risen sharply to $2.89 billion from $2 billion over the past three months. Interestingly, this increase occurred while XLM’s price had been consolidating between $0.30 and $0.20 since March, suggesting that large buyers quietly accumulated during this period of sideways price action.
Supporting this accumulation thesis is the behavior of the 90-day spot taker CVD. During the consolidation phase, taker CVD was buyer-dominant, reflecting aggressive market buys outpacing sells. Currently, CVD has returned to neutral levels, and historically, XLM has shown its strongest rallies when CVD neutralizes after a buyer-dominant phase.
The combination of record-high open interest, a rising spot CVD during consolidation, and a neutral taker CVD points to a potential breakout scenario as the market gears up for further upside in Q3-Q4 2025.
Related: XRP jumps 22% into price discovery as market cap hits a record $210B
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.