Written by Marcel Pechmanstaff writerReviewed by Ray Salmondstaff editorBitcoin bounces off new 2026 price lows: Will US stock weakness push BTC lower?
MarketsPublishedJun 25, 2026
Bitcoin’s trek into new 2026 lows continued as spot BTC ETF outflows, a bearish monthly options expiry and Strategy’s unrealized losses widened its gap with AI-connected stock returns.
Key takeaways:
- Surging spot Bitcoin ETF outflows and a put-heavy options expiry point to fading institutional demand.
- Risk-reward shifts toward tech stocks, leaving crypto traders to seek catalysts beyond macroeconomic tailwinds.
Bitcoin (BTC) traded down 9% in three days, hitting its lowest level since September 2024. The $58,000 retest triggered over $1 billion in liquidations across bullish BTC leveraged positions. Despite a modest recovery to $59,500, Bitcoin traders remain uneasy as the S&P 500 index and gold prices fully erased their intraday losses.
Bitcoin/USD (orange) vs. gold/USD & Nasdaq 100 futures (green). Source: TradingView
The market downturn on Thursday lined up with the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which showed a 4.1% increase in May from the prior year. Yet as Crude Brent oil prices pulled back to $75 from $95 just one month earlier, investors grew more confident that inflation had peaked. As a result, the cash freed up by lower energy costs is boosting the stock market.
Shares of Micron, Sandisk, Applied Materials. Source: TradingView
The tech sector kept delivering strong surprises, with Micron Technology (MU) jumping 16% after solid quarterly earnings and Sandisk (SNDK) riding along with an 18% gain. Applied Materials (AMAT) rose 10% thanks to its new chipmaking tools. Investors' renewed faith in the sector also mirrors the US government administration's recent emphasis.
Fixed income offers a more compelling hedge alternative
Even if Bitcoin does not directly compete with the artificial intelligence sector, traders' risk-reward views have likely tilted toward stocks. This shift followed the US government taking a 9.9% stake in Intel, proposing $2 billion for quantum computing firms, opening federal lands for data center projects, and setting a framework for "frontier models" releases.
Investors worried about inflated AI valuations after Elon Musk’s SpaceX (SPCX) shares fell 32% from their peak can find comfort in 5-year US Treasuries yielding 4.15%. Demand for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin faded as traders now see an 80% chance of US interest rate hikes by December, up from 68% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: SoSoValue
Bitcoin's appeal also took a hit from the massive $469 million net outflows in spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Wednesday. The metric serves as a key proxy for institutional demand. Sentiment worsened further as Strategy (MSTR) now sits on a huge unrealized loss after buying $64.1 billion worth of Bitcoin since 2020.
Related: 21shares trims 2026 crypto forecasts despite institutional adoption gains
Strategy (MSTR) Bitcoin reserves and cash position, USD. Source: Strategy
The upcoming $13 billion Bitcoin options expiry on Friday heavily favors put (sell) instruments. Most neutral-to-bullish strategies will likely expire worthless, since 78% of call (buy) options are priced at $72,000 or above. Put options open interest on Deribit will exceed call options by $3.4 billion.
Bitcoin’s price momentum shows little tie to stocks due to heavy ETF outflows, a bearish options expiry skew and Strategy’s mounting unrealized losses. Bitcoin traders must now hunt for unique catalysts beyond equity market tailwinds to spark a turnaround.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph's Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
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