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Jackson Hole Symposium is starting today. Though the equity markets are calm heading into the meeting of the central bankers, analysts will closely watch every statement of the US Fed chair Janet Yellen and the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.
It will be interesting to note whether the cryptocurrencies also respond to their speeches. Let’s see what the important levels to watch are in case of a rally or a fall following the central banker’s rhetoric.
Bitcoin is close to retesting the lifetime high at $4469. A breakout and close above this level will signal strength, and a rally towards the upper end of the channel at about $4630 levels is likely.
If the cryptocurrency breaks out of the channel, chances are that price will rise vertically, but the rally is unlikely to be sustained. Therefore, in case of a breakout above $4630, traders should trail their stops closely. The next target should be reaching the psychologically important level of $5000, which should act as a strong resistance.
Traders who are long from lower levels should book partial profits and continue to hold their remaining positions with close stop losses, because there is always resistance at the previous lifetime highs.
We don’t recommend initiating new positions at the current levels because the risk-reward is not attractive, as the logical stop loss is way deeper at about $3900 levels. Until the digital currency breaks down and closes below the channel, it remains in an uptrend.
We had advised a stop loss of $280 to our readers who had gone long on our recommendation at $330 levels. As the price has moved above our buy levels, we want to further reduce our risk. We, now, recommend a stop loss of $290, below which the digital currency is likely to fall to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $247.
The cryptocurrency will pick up momentum once it breaks out of $345 levels. Its first target objective is $381, above which a move to $400 is also possible.
However, traders are requested to raise their stops to $310 levels as soon as Ethereum breaks out of $345, and thereafter trail stops higher to protect their profits.
We were correct to avoid chasing the price higher. According to our expectation, Bitcoin Cash has remained range bound. Though it doesn’t have a long history, after a sharp upmove from the lows of $190.1 on Aug. 06 to the intraday highs of $387.2 on Aug. 8, the cryptocurrency went into a correction/consolidation for the next eight days, before breaking out on Aug. 17.
The current leg of the correction is in its sixth day. We may see another two days of range bound action before the next move up or down.
We don’t see any reliable buy setups on Bitcoin Cash, therefore, we are not recommending any new positions. However, aggressive traders can buy a successful retest of $550 levels or a breakout above $736 with close stop losses.
Ripple scaled our first target objective and came close to our second target; however, it could not reach it. Therefore, traders should always trail their stops higher.
What can the traders expect now?
In the present correction, the digital currency has found support at the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement levels of the rise from $0.14749 to the highs of $0.29800. If it reverses direction and moves above $0.24000 levels, a rally to $0.28000 levels is likely.
Therefore, aggressive traders can enter on a breakout above $0.24000 and keep a stop loss below $0.20100, because a breakdown below $0.20166 will be negative and the fall can extend to $0.17970.
As the cryptocurrency is volatile, please keep the allocation size small.
We had recommended a trade on a breakout above $50, as we were expecting a move to $65, however, Litecoin is currently facing resistance near the earlier highs. Traders who have initiated long positions on our advice should keep a stop loss of $46. We don’t want to hold the digital currency if it again falls back below $50 levels.
Nevertheless, as long as LTC sustains above the $50 levels, it signals strength and a move to $65 is likely.
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