After evaluating data derived from crypto publication headlines, digital asset alternative data provider The TIE discovered a correlation between Bitcoin’s price in the market and mentions of the upcoming halving in media outlets.
“We noticed how, as mentions of the halving were decreasing last fall, that tended to correlate with downward price movement,” The TIE CEO Joshua Frank told Cointelegraph on Feb. 25. “Once that narrative picked up again, Bitcoin saw upward price movement,” he continued.
On Feb. 22, The TIE tweeted a chart showing the correlation. “The number of mentions of the halving in crypto publications appears to have led price movement of BTC,” the social media post said. “Mentions of the halving have hit an ATH.”
The halving is coming this year
Bitcoin is expected to undergo a halving event in May 2020, decreasing the coin’s mining reward from 12.5 BTC to 6.25. This essentially means less BTC will enter the market on a consistent basis.
As this event occurs every four years, Bitcoin has completed two other halving events since its 2009 inception. The event has historically led to higher prices for crypto’s pioneer asset, leading many market participants to have a bullish bias for the event this year.
After looking at data from 22 different crypto media outlets, such as Cointelegraph, CoinDesk, Bitcoinist, and The Block, The TIE found a “moderately strong and positive” correlation between mentions of Bitcoin’s halving and the asset’s price, Frank said.
“What is interesting here is not that the two variables are perfectly correlated, but that price has generally trailed the halving narrative,” Frank said. “As digital asset publications have discussed it more, price has followed. That isn’t to say that correlation equals causation though,” he added.
Digital gold was the narrative that drove price last year
Bitcoin’s value as digital gold was a key driver of price last year, and that seems to be shifting to a narrative in which Bitcoin’s upcoming halving pushes the asset’s price higher, Frank said.
Throughout Bitcoin’s history, many people and entities have compared the asset to gold in various ways.
“It wasn’t until last fall that we began seeing a rise in headlines on the halving and subsequent correlation with price,” Frank noted.
“Over the past few months there have been many instances in which one narrative seemingly takes a driver’s seat,” Frank said, pointing toward changes in narrative popularity. “In October 2019 the digital gold narrative was pushed much harder than the halving narrative,” he said.
“Keep in mind, this data is relative over that period,” he clarified, adding, “It isn’t a measure of raw mentions.”
Just last week, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao expressed his opinion that Bitcoin will rise further in price due to the halving.