Bitcoin Price $4K by April? One Big Reason to Not Be Bullish Just Yet

Bitcoin price (BTC) increased over 10% over the past week, so it didn’t take long for the usual crypto Twitter suspects to start screaming that they are all bullish now. Even I saw some bullish momentum as outlined in last week's analysis, but have we seen the bottom yet? Or is there more downside to come before we resume a bull trend?

Daily crypto market performance

Daily crypto market performance. Source: Coin360.com

The monthly MACD is bearish

BTC USD monthly chart

BTC USD monthly chart. Source: TradingView

Working backward through various time frames, a look at the Moving Average Divergence Convergence (MACD) shows it crossed bearishly on Dec. 1 and the first red candle on the histogram was printed.

Bitcoin has never seen a single candle before changing the bias on the MACD in its entire history. As it’s one of the most widely used indicators for momentum trading, this indicates that there is bound to be a longer downward period than most traders would like to admit.  

However, one positive that is worth taking note of is that the last bullish phase was the shortest the MACD has seen on Bitcoin, just 6 months of green before flipping red. As such, speculating on how much longer we could expect a bear market for is difficult. 

If these phases are getting smaller and smaller the optimist in me suggests 4 months before we see a true bottom and reversal, which would put the pivot around April 1, 2020.

The monthly Bollinger Bands 

BTC USD BB monthly chart

BTC USD BB monthly chart. Source: TradingView

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