Bitcoin (BTC) entered the Christmas holiday period unchanged at $16,800 as an eerie lack of volatility persevered.
Hopeful price target sees Bitcoin at $17,400
The pair had struggled to break out despite multiple potential catalysts coming from United States economic data prints.
With the holiday season ahead, a Santa rally appeared unlikely, while a lack of significant events to come further reduced the chances of flash volatility.
In a weekend analysis, however, Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, nonetheless reiterated the possibility of a step higher to near $17,500 should current levels hold.
“Bitcoin still holding levels here as we flipped $16.750 for support,” he told Twitter followers:
“If that holds (and no sharp fall to $16.4K), I think we'll still be able to see continuation to the upside to $17.4k.”
Popular analytics account On-Chain College, meanwhile, released a list of key levels to watch in the short term, with most of these to the downside.
They included realized price — the aggregate price at which the BTC supply last moved — along with the balanced price, which expresses the difference between realized price and the current spot price. The two tallies came in at $19,900 and $15,250, respectively, on Dec. 23.
Fellow trader Crypto Poseidon conversely advised potential buyers to steer clear of the current range altogether.
“Whatever the reason, long-term purchases under $19k will waste a lot of time,” he commented on the weekly chart:
“There is 2 particular spot buy levels; above 19k or sub 12k.”
Woo: Bear market may not outlast 2015
Eyeing where the current bearish trend could end, meanwhile, Willy Woo, creator of on-chain analytics resource Woobull, had some potential good news for long-term holders (LTHs).
Bitcoin’s bear market could potentially end before becoming its longest ever, he argued on the day, likening this year’s events to those of 2013.
“The main question I have is how long this cycle's accumulation zone will be,” he tweeted:
“Judging from all the blow ups, it's more akin to 2013 with the MtGox collapse (Remember 90%+ of BTC was traded there). I suspect it will be longer than 2018 but shorter than 2015.”
An accompanying chart showed the cost basis of LTHs — defined as entities hodling coins for 155 days or longer — and short-term holders (STHs), respectively.
The “premium” which results from LTH cost basis rising higher than STH cost basis has historically chimed with macro BTC price bottoming periods.
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