Senior traders from Galaxy Digital and Alameda Research are predicting the crypto market is set to recover once the recent wave of bad news stories subside.
Markets have been in a downturn since mid-May, with Bitcoin (BTC) fluctuating between the low to mid $30K range.
Speaking with streaming financial news provider Kitco News on June 24, Jason Urban, co-head of Trading at Galaxy Digital asserted that once the FUD dissipates by the Fall, Bitcoin should reach new highs and “see something north of $70,000 by the end of the year.”
Urban used baseball as an analogy, saying that institutional crypto investment is only in the “first inning”.
While he believes regulatory uncertainty has held many institutions back from entering crypto markets, once they do enter, increased demand for the limited supply of BTC should drive prices up to new highs.
“I think that as we pull into the Fall, a lot of this institutional adoption and these aspirational moves that we’ve seen will start to manifest itself, and we should see the market take out those highs."
Related: FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried: Institutions are ‘desperate’ for crypto
Alameda trader rejects the FUD
Sam Trabucco, a trader at top quantitative crypto trading firm Alameda Research, also believes crypto markets are set to stage a recovery and he questioned the validity of multiple narratives driving the recent levels of FUD.
Word on the street is: this price graph is fucked up. What happened?— Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco) June 23, 2021
A thread about the calm, the storm, and how to tell the difference. pic.twitter.com/QDl3nt1xtj
In a June 23 Twitter thread, Trabucco told his 64,000 followers that the FUD regarding China, U.S. regulations, Elon Musk’s environmental concerns over BTC mining, and concerns over the solvency of MicroStrategy during the Bitcoin dip, have all “constituted an over-reaction”.
The price had earlier also overreacted to the Tesla Bitcoin buy and Musk’s bullish tweets.
“None of that is concrete, though, and people vacillate between over-stating the pieces of news they want to hear and under-stating the ones they don't.”
Trabucco stated that the market activity surrounding bad news events is a predictable phenomenon, but it doesn’t truly affect where the market should be priced long term.
“I think probably none of them *really* mattered in the first place for BTC's "value," or where people should be pricing it medium-term.”
Trabucco asserted that “liquidations are exacerbating” the public over-reaction to price BTC’s changes. He added that no one wanted to sell down to $30K but had been forced to, meaning that it was a great opportunity to buy.
“It seems like MAYBE today marks yet another paradigm switch? We'll have to wait and see -- Alameda's new long positions are sure hoping so,” he said.
In fact, trading at the END of any of these periods is a predictably awesome trade -- the goal is finding it.— Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco) June 23, 2021
It seems like MAYBE today marks yet another paradigm switch? We'll have to wait and see -- Alameda's new long positions are sure hoping so. pic.twitter.com/tHbbhjbcj7