As we expected, yesterday the Bitcoin price trend continued sideways at $430. Currently the level of resistance is about $430 and buyers can not overcome this level. However, sellers can not seize the initiative at the moment either. Market players are waiting and are in no hurry to open long or short positions.
It seems that the price of Bitcoin should soon break upward to the range of $440 - $450. The reason for this is the beginning of the year, when investors try to form their investment portfolio. The US Dollar, Bitcoin's main competitor, is now under pressure because of the weak economic data coming from the US. The index of activity in the manufacturing sector, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) revealed yesterday to be at the level of 48.2, which is its lowest level since June 2009. Decline in business activity in the manufacturing sector suggests a reduction in US GDP, as well as placing the Dollar under pressure. Bitcoin has, on the contrary, big prospects for growth in 2016. We asked experts again, if we can expect the price of Bitcoin to rise to $500 by the end of January? And got the following answers:
Mike Lorrey from USA, the co-creator of cryptocurrency Galactic and cryptocurrency BitGold:
“Yes, it appears that UK PM David Cameron’s recent statements that unless taxes are raised significantly, the only way to meet budget demands will be to confiscate savings in bank accounts, has motivated a number of UK persons to begin looking seriously at bitcoin as a means of shielding their savings from the tax man. If bitcoin is accepted to even a minor extent in the UK as a major means of storing savings, this could result in a significant and permanent uptick in the price of bitcoin. The problem, of course, is that the UK govt may make it difficult for persons to transfer funds to companies providing bitcoin services, or the govt may start collecting bitcoin wallet keys of UK residents in order to track the bitcoin savings of UK residents and citizens, and to impose seizure orders”.
Vishal Gupta is the Founder of Bitcoin Alliance India, CEO at SearchTrade, and Director at Moving Trumpet:
“It seems Market is factoring in halving of bitcoin in advance and we could see price rising as far as 600 to 700 before July. That said there is every likelihood that traders may test 500 before end of January”.
Tomi Hrovatin from Slovenia, a developer of HODL Tools for trading:
“It's hard to predict where the price will be by the end of January. It definitely can reach 500 mark and it can also make some detours to 600 and 400 in the meanwhile. If bulls take the lead to 500, they have to turn 3 major Hodl SR resistance levels into support:
- 450 (Bull Tgt 1) to convince bears to stop shorting every up-move
- 465 (Bull Tgt 2) to convert bears into bulls
- 481 (Bull Tgt 3) to trigger remaining stop losses
It may take days to clear each level, but expect to speed up once and if they get traction.
On the other hand, bears story is not to be ignored. It's true they are failing to take out 418 Hodl SR level (Bear Tgt 1) for more than a week, but that can change in no time.
If Bear Tgt 1 turns into resistance, the last line of defence is at 408 Hodl SR level (Bear Tgt 2). If that one becomes a resistance, well, it's hard that we will see 500 in the near future.
Overall HODL TA is still bullish until proven otherwise. Hodl Stick with a channel pulling up on higher timeframes (4H, 1D, 1W) suggests bullish market sentiment and so does a price failing to reach Bear Tgt 2 on 31h of Dec and Bear Tgt 1 on 4th of Jan”.
Today, January 5, 2016, we expect a shift in Bitcoin trading to the range of $430 - $440. Overcoming the level of $440, will open the way to $445 and $450. The level of support is $415. The resistance level is $440.
The relevant question: is it possible to consider Bitcoin an investment for 5 years and what are the prospects of an increase in its price to $10 000 by this time?
This analysis and forecast are the personal opinions of the author and are not a recommendation to buy or sell Bitcoins.
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