Ether Price Breaks Key Resistance — Can It Repeat Bitcoin’s 42% Gain?

Over the past week Ether (ETH) has shown that it is not permanently hinged to Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action and notably, a number of altcoins are also beginning to forge their own paths higher. 

Ethereum breaks through key resistance

Close analysis of the ETH/USD and ETH/BTC chart shows rumblings of a bullish breakout, but there are still significant challenges ahead before this can occur. 

Crypto market data daily view

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

As shown on the daily chart, Ether continues to put space between itself and the multi-month descending triangle that the altcoin broke out of on Oct. 25. The digital asset has continued to notch daily higher lows and the most recent run to $194.60 almost set a higher high above the Oct. 25 local high at $199.77. 

ETH USD daily chart

ETH USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

As mentioned in the previous analysis, Ether needed to clear the resistance zone at $184 to $186 in order to take a shot at $194, a point reached early in the day on Wednesday. 

The next step remains the same as last week and if volume permits, bulls need to push the price up to the 200-day moving average (DMA), which also lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. 

ETH USD 6-hour chart

ETH USD 6-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Although the price has pulled back from $194, the 12-period exponential moving average (EMA) remains above the 26 EMA and the price appears set to revisit the moving average of the Bollinger Band indicator at $187.

The relative strength index (RSI) has turned down from 68, the Stochastic RSI (Stoch) has turned down, quickly approaching bearish territory. There is also an impending bear cross on the moving average confluence divergence (MACD). 

Normally this would suggest that the price could fall further to the support at $183.74, a point which is also held up by a high volume node on the volume profile visible range. Fortunately, the hourly time frame tells a different tale. 

ETH USD 1-hour chart

ETH USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The RSI bounced slightly above 40, a reliable zone for observing such maneuvers on the hourly and 6-hour timeframe. The Stoch already reversed course off 0 and is now slowly working its way back up again after the lines converged. 

The pace of the falling MACD line also has slowed as Ether’s price bounced off the lower arm of the Bollinger Band indicator and the price is currently pushing back toward the middle band at $190.65. 

Traders might consider buying the breakout with a tight stop if Ether price sustains above $199.45 and the price could make its way to $225, then $240. 

ETH/BTC heats up

The ETH/BTC pairing is steadily improving, maintaining a pattern of daily higher lows as the price is pinched between narrowing 12 and 26 EMA. 

ETH BTC daily chart

ETH BTC daily chart. Source: TradingView

The price is capped by 0.020592 satoshis (sats) and once above this point, Ether should work at taking out 0.020984 (sats). Traders will notice the divergence on the daily MACD, along with the bull cross between the MACD and the signal line. Another positive sign is that the MACD histogram has flipped green and is currently above 0. 

ETH BTC daily chart

ETH BTC daily chart. Source: TradingView

Currently, the price is being rejected at the 20-MA of the Bollinger Band indicator and a move above the first target at 0.020984 (sats) could see the price run to the upper Bollinger Band arm at 0.022033 (sats) for a 7.25% gain. This could prove to be a significant challenge as the VPVR shows significant selling pressure at 0.020984 (sats) and above.