Ethereum's native token, Ether (ETH), continues to face downside risks in a higher interest rate environment. But one analyst believes that the token's next selloff move could turn into a bear trap as the market factors in the possible release of the Merge this coming August.
ETH to $4K?
Ether's price could reach $4,000 by 2022's end, according to a technical setup shared on May 20 by Wolf, an independent market analyst.
The analyst envisioned ETH moving inside a multi-month ascending triangle pattern, which comprises a horizontal trendline resistance and rising trendline support.
Notably, ETH's latest retest of the structure's lower trendline could initiate a big rebound toward its upper trendline, which sits around the $4,000-level, as shown below.
Wolf took his bullish cues from a similar triangle setup from 2016, whose formation preceded a major bull run from $1 to $27. Similarly, another ascending triangle occurrence in 2017 coincided with a bullish follow-up, wherein ETH/USD rose 270% to over $1,500.
The Merge vs. low liquidity "death spiral"
Wolf's fractal-based analysis came as Preston Van Loon, one of the Ethereum core developers, confirmed that the blockchain project's much-anticipated upgrade to a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism would occur sometime in August.
Wolf noted that Ethereum was setting up a "bear trap," which would make sense prior to the upgrade, complimenting his technical setup, as discussed above.
The pending upgrade was one of the key catalysts behind Ether's price rally in 2021, as many investors believed it would improve the long-standing scalability problem in the Ethereum blockchain while cutting transaction and gas costs. Nonetheless, Ethereum Foundation kept delaying the launch.
"Undoubtedly, this lack of progress has played a major role in Ethereum's recent price decline," Bitfreedom Research, a tech-stock and crypto research entity, noted while predicting ETH's price to decline toward $950–$1,900 by October 2022.
The firm cited higher interest rates as the core reason behind its bearish outlook for Ethereum, noting:
"The crypto market moves extraordinarily fast, which means crypto companies need LOTS of cash to power rapid growth. With no cash available, this can lead Ethereum's ERC20-token economy to move in a death spiral."
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