On May 19, one bitcoin was trading for right around US$450, where the price had hovered for a few days. Thereafter, the price began an upward climb that, at the time of writing, has one bitcoin trading for about US$632.
You can see the increase in the chart, from Bitcoin Charts, below:
That’s already close to doubling the mid-April low of about US$344. For the purposes of this analysis, for Bitcoin’s price to double it will need to approach US$900, a two-fold increase over that May 19 price.
Let’s take a look at some trends and events to gauge how possible that is.
What was happening around May 19?
First, let’s speculate as to what happened on May 19 and May 20 that caused that massive spike in trading volume and related price increase:
- BTC China launched an ATM in Shanghai
- A Thai exchange reopened
- The Fed has some positive remarks about Bitcoin
- The Chicago Sun-Times sold Jay-Z / Beyonce tickets in Biоtcoin
As intriguing as it would be for Hova and Bey to affect Bitcoin’s price so easily, Jacob Harper at Equities.com concluded that the usual suspects, Chinese investors, were responsible.
Predicting the bubble
Right on cue, Tuur Demeester was there for a timely retweet.
According to Oleg Andreev, in a tweet he sent out May 25, Bitcoin prices tend to spike at eight-month intervals. The last spike was the big one, when Bitcoin broke the US$1100 mark on many exchanges in early December. An eight-month interval puts the next spike in early July.
If that’s true, Bitcoin investors are in for a fun June.
CoinTelegraph reached out to Tuur Demeester and Geir Solem to get their prediction on this uptick in Bitcoin prices.
Tuur Demeester: We need to watch the $700 levels carefully. If we cannot break through those, it's likely that we'll fall back to $450 support levels.
Last fall's rally arguably started right after the $63 low on July 5, and then it took four months before the old high of $260 was taken out, after which the “big rally” toward $1150 began.
Following that analogy, it could take us until mid-August before the +$1000 highs are challenged and/or overshot. In other words, I think we need some more time to build a bigger “launch platform" before we can challenge the old highs.
I give +$900 this month a 20% chance or so.
Geir Solem: The price rise of Bitcoin in USD took around five years. The decline since the all-time high in December 2013 lasted only around four months, but with a very high retrenchment of the rise, indicating that a larger price structure was completed in Bitcoin.
Both price corrections and the time they take to play out usually follow golden ratios or Fibonacci relationships. I would therefore expect the time of the price correction to be in proportion to the time it took for the rally to play itself out. The correction should then take around one or two years, or about 23.6 or 38.2 percent of the time of the rally itself. The recent decline was only the first wave down in a larger correction, and the current rally is then a bear market rally.
My forecast is that it would take some more months to reach US$900. Look for this rally to end later this year or early 2015. Bear market rallies are usually messy, so scary sell-offs can happen on the way up.